Match Info

League Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, DirecTV Sports
Greece	ERT Sports 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, ESPN 3 North
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
South-america	DGO Latin America
United-arab-emirates	Maraya
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus, Inter


	Porto		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.49	4.15	6.4
	1.51	4.23	7.16
	1.50	3.99	6.29	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.51	4.31	5.88	Watch
	1.48	4.2	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.32)	4.15 ↓ (4.33)	6.48 ↓ (7.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
63%

Draw
22.6%

Vitoria Guimarães
14.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.7%

20.6%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.6%

19.5%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Porto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Porto - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Porto (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +2 - Guimarães (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 4 - 80%). Guimarães (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Claudio Ramos (C) 52. Fernandes M. 13. Rosario P. 21. Prpic D. 12. Zaidu 10. Veiga G. 22. Varela A. 6. Eustaquio S. 75. Karamoh Y. 47. Alarcon A. 17. Sainz B.	25. Castillo J. (G) 66. Strata T. 4. Rivas Viondi O. 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 6. Mitrovic M. 16. Beni 18. Arcanjo T. 20. Samu (C) 19. Camara O. 7. Oliveira N.
Substitutes
5. Bednarek J. 20. Costa A. 24. Costa J. (G) 4. Kiwior J. 86. Mora R. 11. Pepê 25. Perez T. 9. Samu 7. William Gomes	22. Blanco F. 27. Charles Silva (G) 17. Lebedenko O. 2. Maga 90. Ndoye A. 30. Nogueira G. 48. Saviolo N. 23. Sousa D. 28. Thiago Balieiro
Coaches
Farioli F.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Veiga G. ⚽, Rosario P. (A),
22', Sainz B. 🟨,
22', Oliveira N. 🟨,
25', Veiga G. 🟨,
31', Karamoh Y. 🟨,
37', Rosario P. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Oliveira N. (Penalty Awarded),
44', Abascal R. 🟨,
45+4', Rivas Viondi O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Veiga G. ↓, Mora R. ↑,
46', Karamoh Y. ↓, Samu ↑,
53', 1 - 2, Samu ⚽,
58', Oliveira N. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
64', Sainz B. ↓, William Gomes ↑,
64', Varela A. ↓, Pepê ↑,
70', Samu ↓, Nogueira G. ↑,
70', Arcanjo T. ↓, Saviolo N. ↑,
77', Fernandes M. ↓, Costa A. ↑,
79', 1 - 3, Camara O. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Prpic D. 🟨,
81', Nogueira G. 🟨,
85', Ndoye A. 🟨,
86', Mora R. 🟨,
88', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
88', Mitrovic M. ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
90+6', William Gomes 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 3.

Porto has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Guimarães has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Porto is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Porto will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Porto won 16 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 39:15. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:10. (average 2.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
30.11.25	Porto - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Porto - Nice	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Porto - Sintrense	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Famalicão - Porto	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Utrecht - Porto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWWT
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
28.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Mortágua	4:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	0:3 ✺
26.10.25	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
11.08.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0
24.02.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1
21.09.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Porto	0:3
Taça de Portugal
17.04.24	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	3:1
Liga Portugal
07.04.24	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2
Taça de Portugal
03.04.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Porto	0:1
Liga Portugal
11.11.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Porto	1:2

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