Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 32

Date: 3 May 2024, Friday

Location: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos)

Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Moreirense		Vizela

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.2	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.08	3.51	3.94
	2.26	3.37	3.41
	2.15	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.22	3.42	3.27	Watch
	2.22	3.3	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.88)	3.38 ↓ (3.49)	3.37 ↓ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
43.4%

Draw
28.3%

Vizela
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

27.1%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

25.2%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moreirense's form might have worsened.

Vizela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vizela's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84%	8%	8%

Moreirense - Vizela Predictions

Users Predictions: Moreirense will win (20 of 24 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.42% – 98.24%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Caio (G) 76. Pinto D. 44. Marcelo (C) 26. Maracas 23. Frimpong G. 88. Franco G. 80. Ofori L. 19. Camacho J. 11. Alan 7. Matheus Aias 9. Asue L.	1. Ruberto F. (G) 82. Costa Silva T. 4. Jota Goncalves 5. Anderson Jesus 19. Lebedenko O. 90. Nascimento D. 20. Samu (C) 75. Lokilo J. 10. Quina D. 29. Soro A. 99. Essende S.
Substitutes
18. Amador P. 17. Antonisse J. 10. Aparicio P. 66. Batista G. 8. Castro 40. Kewin (G) 21. Kodisang K. 45. Rebelo M. 32. Vinicius Mingotti	11. Ba-Sy A. 97. Buntic F. (G) 25. Escoval R. 17. Lacava M. 6. Matheus Pereira 8. Mendez A. 2. Oliveira H. 34. Ortiz P. 23. Rashid O.
Coaches
Aguiar T.	de la Barrera R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Ofori L. ⚽,
45', Maracas ↓, Batista G. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Nascimento D. ↓, Lacava M. ↑,
58', Lebedenko O. ↓, Matheus Pereira ↑,
58', Quina D. ↓, Ortiz P. ↑,
66', Camacho J. 🟨,
68', Matheus Aias ↓, Vinicius Mingotti ↑,
68', Asue L. ↓, Antonisse J. ↑,
77', Lokilo J. ↓, Ba-Sy A. ↑,
79', Frimpong G. 🟨,
80', Camacho J. ↓, Kodisang K. ↑,
80', Ofori L. ↓, Castro ↑,
81', Essende S. 🟨,
83', Lacava M. 🟨,
89', Antonisse J. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 6 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Moreirense is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vizela has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Moreirense will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Moreirense: Fabiano (Yellow Cards) Hernani Infande (Injury) Ramos R. (Yellow Cards) Sylla A. (Injury)

There will not play in Vizela: Bruno Costa (Muscle Injury) Busnic A. (Injury) Lacava M. (Injury) Petrov S. (Knee Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Moreirense won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Moreirense won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
28.04.24	Portimonense - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
20.04.24	Moreirense - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
14.04.24	Benfica - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
07.04.24	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
30.03.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLTL
- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
27.04.24	Vizela - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
20.04.24	Braga - Vizela	2:1 ✺
15.04.24	Vizela - Chaves	0:1 ✺
06.04.24	Famalicão - Vizela	3:2 ✺
31.03.24	Vizela - Casa Pia	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
23.12.23	Vizela - Moreirense	0:0
14.05.22	Moreirense - Vizela	4:1
08.01.22	Vizela - Moreirense	0:1
Taça de Portugal
16.10.16	Vizela - Moreirense	1:0
Club Friendly
09.08.15	Vizela - Moreirense	1:2

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