Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 27

Date: 31 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Vizela (Caldas de Vizela)

Referee: Melo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vizela		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.1
	2.3	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.35	3.26	3.32
	2.35	3.26	3.32
	2.25	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.29	3.34	3.17	Watch
	2.33	3.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.35)	3.26 ↑ (3.16)	3.2 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vizela
41.3%

Draw
29.1%

Casa Pia
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

30.8%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vizela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	58.3%	16.7%

Vizela - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Vizela will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. Buntic F. (G) 82. Costa Silva T. 4. Jota Goncalves 25. Escoval R. 19. Lebedenko O. 90. Nascimento D. 34. Ortiz P. 20. Samu (C) 6. Matheus Pereira 75. Lokilo J. 99. Essende S.	33. Batista R. (G) 15. Varela F. (C) 19. Zolotic N. 2. Tchamba D. 72. Larrazabal G. 21. Segovia T. 8. Neto 80. Pablo Roberto 5. Lelo L. 7. Moreira N. 30. Felippe
Substitutes
5. Anderson Jesus 28. Bruno Costa 73. Bursac N. (G) 22. Busnic A. 8. Mendez A. 2. Oliveira H. 9. Petrov S. 10. Quina D. 29. Soro A.	12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 18. Geraldes A. 96. Justo S. 9. Lacximicant A. 10. Lameiras R. 68. Lucas Paes (G) 3. Nunes J. 11. Soma Y. 77. Tiago Dias
Coaches
de la Barrera R.	Santana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Neto 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Neto ⚽, Lelo L. (A),
27', Nascimento D. 🟨,
40', Segovia T. 🟨,
40', Batista R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Ortiz P. ↓, Petrov S. ↑,
46', Nascimento D. ↓, Soro A. ↑,
46', Lebedenko O. ↓, Bruno Costa ↑,
54', Soro A. 🟨,
57', 0 - 2, Felippe ⚽, Pablo Roberto (A),
61', Segovia T. ↓, Justo S. ↑,
63', Varela F. 🟨,
65', Tchamba D. 🟨,
66', Lokilo J. ↓, Quina D. ↑,
66', Matheus Pereira ↓, Anderson Jesus ↑,
70', 0 - 3, Felippe ⚽, Justo S. (A),
76', Tchamba D. 🟨,
77', Neto ↓, Benaissa-Yahia F. ↑,
77', Moreira N. ↓, Soma Y. ↑,
83', Pablo Roberto ↓, Nunes J. ↑,
84', Felippe ↓, Geraldes A. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 4, Larrazabal G. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vizela won 4.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Casa Pia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Vizela will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vizela: Lacava M. (Red Card) Ruberto F. (Injury)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Brito R. (Muscle Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Vizela won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Vizela won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
16.03.24	Porto - Vizela	4:1 ✺
09.03.24	Vizela - Farense	2:1 ✺
03.03.24	Portimonense - Vizela	0:0 ✺
25.02.24	Vizela - Estoril Praia	3:3 ✺
18.02.24	Benfica - Vizela	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWTTL
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
17.03.24	Casa Pia - Benfica	0:1 ✺
08.03.24	Estrela da Amadora - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
03.03.24	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
24.02.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
18.02.24	Casa Pia - Arouca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
05.11.23	Casa Pia - Vizela	0:1
01.04.23	Vizela - Casa Pia	3:1
09.10.22	Casa Pia - Vizela	0:1
Portuguese Liga 2
20.02.21	Vizela - Casa Pia	3:1
27.09.20	Casa Pia - Vizela	1:1
Taça de Portugal
20.10.19	Casa Pia - Vizela	1:3

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