Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 31

Date: 28 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Portimão (Portimão)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Portimonense		Moreirense

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.6	Watch
	2.7	3.25	2.6
	2.78	3.35	2.68
	2.78	3.35	2.67
	2.62	3.3	2.6	Watch
	2.72	3.32	2.59	Watch
	2.75	3.2	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↓ (3.19)	3.26 ↑ (3.25)	2.64 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portimonense
34.9%

Draw
29.1%

Moreirense
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

29.3%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

29.8%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portimonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	64.3%	21.4%

Portimonense - Moreirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Portimonense will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Moreirense will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Nakamura K. (G) 33. Igor Formiga 44. Pedrao (C) 43. Tornich 22. Relvas F. 8. Fukui T. 11. Carlinhos 25. Lucas Ventura 28. Luan 9. Monteiro T. 77. Varela H.	22. Caio (G) 2. Fabiano 44. Marcelo (C) 26. Maracas 23. Frimpong G. 80. Ofori L. 8. Castro 19. Camacho J. 11. Alan 7. Matheus Aias 9. Asue L.
Substitutes
19. Carrillo R. 85. Cassama M. 18. Costa G. 13. Dener 20. Estrela P. 27. Guga 10. Pereira H. 14. Seck M. 12. Vinicius Silvestre (G)	18. Amador P. 17. Antonisse J. 10. Aparicio P. 66. Batista G. 88. Franco G. 12. Mika (G) 76. Pinto D. 6. Ramos R. 32. Vinicius Mingotti
Coaches
Paulo Sergio	Aguiar T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', Luan 🟨,
70', Castro ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
70', Ofori L. ↓, Franco G. ↑,
74', Asue L. ↓, Antonisse J. ↑,
76', 0 - 1, Maracas ⚽,
81', Relvas F. ↓, Pereira H. ↑,
82', Luan ↓, Cassama M. ↑,
82', Igor Formiga ↓, Guga ↑,
82', Fukui T. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
88', Varela H. ↓, Carrillo R. ↑,
90+1', Costa G. 🟨,
90+1', Fabiano 🟨,
90+1', Camacho J. 🟨,
90+3', Ramos R. 🟨,
90+4', 0 - 2, Camacho J. ⚽,
90+6', Alan ↓, Vinicius Mingotti ↑,
90+6', Camacho J. ↓, Pinto D. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portimonense won 2.

Recent matches Portimonense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Moreirense is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Moreirense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Portimonense won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 14-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Portimonense won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portimonense SC
Liga Portugal
21.04.24	Famalicão - Portimonense	2:2 ✺
14.04.24	Portimonense - Casa Pia	2:2 ✺
07.04.24	Chaves - Portimonense	2:3 ✺
01.04.24	Portimonense - Braga	3:5 ✺
15.03.24	Estoril Praia - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTWLL
- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
20.04.24	Moreirense - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
14.04.24	Benfica - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
07.04.24	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
30.03.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
17.03.24	Moreirense - Arouca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
17.12.23	Moreirense - Portimonense	5:2
23.04.22	Portimonense - Moreirense	1:0
12.12.21	Moreirense - Portimonense	0:1
10.05.21	Portimonense - Moreirense	1:2
24.01.21	Moreirense - Portimonense	2:2
15.02.20	Portimonense - Moreirense	1:1
30.08.19	Moreirense - Portimonense	1:0

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