Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 31

Date: 27 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Vizela (Caldas de Vizela)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Vizela		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.3	2.5	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.5
	2.6	3.25	2.7
	2.95	3.27	2.63
	2.95	3.19	2.63
	2.8	3.25	2.45	Watch
	2.83	3.34	2.49	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.55)	3.25 ↑ (3.24)	2.56 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vizela
33.6%

Draw
29.3%

Rio Ave
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

29.4%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

31.1%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vizela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vizela, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rio Ave, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	62.5%	37.5%

Vizela - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ruberto F. (G) 82. Costa Silva T. 4. Jota Goncalves 5. Anderson Jesus 19. Lebedenko O. 90. Nascimento D. 20. Samu (C) 75. Lokilo J. 10. Quina D. 29. Soro A. 99. Essende S.	18. Jhonatan (G) 3. Nobrega M. 33. Santos A. (C) 4. William P. 20. Costinha 5. Tanlongo M. 7. Joao Teixeira 11. Embalo U. 22. Boateng E. 81. Aziz 14. Joca
Substitutes
11. Ba-Sy A. 97. Buntic F. (G) 25. Escoval R. 6. Matheus Pereira 8. Mendez A. 2. Oliveira H. 34. Ortiz P. 23. Rashid O. 14. Saint-Louis D.	10. Amine 77. Fabio Ronaldo 8. Gomes V. 21. Graca J. 28. Helder Sa 12. Miszta C. (G) 42. Pantalon R. 17. Ukra 70. Ze Manuel
Coaches
de la Barrera R.	Freire L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Aziz ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Essende S. ⚽,
41', Joao Teixeira 🟨,
45+3', Nobrega M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nobrega M. ↓, Pantalon R. ↑,
58', Aziz ↓, Graca J. ↑,
58', Tanlongo M. ↓, Gomes V. ↑,
58', Joao Teixeira ↓, Fabio Ronaldo ↑,
63', Quina D. 🟨,
66', Samu 🟨,
67', Quina D. ↓, Ba-Sy A. ↑,
77', Soro A. ↓, Ortiz P. ↑,
77', Lokilo J. ↓, Matheus Pereira ↑,
85', Joca ↓, Ze Manuel ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 12).

Vizela has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Rio Ave is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Rio Ave could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Our prediction for today's Rio Ave to win the game is with odds 2.57.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Vizela won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Vizela won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
20.04.24	Braga - Vizela	2:1 ✺
15.04.24	Vizela - Chaves	0:1 ✺
06.04.24	Famalicão - Vizela	3:2 ✺
31.03.24	Vizela - Casa Pia	0:4 ✺
16.03.24	Porto - Vizela	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
19.04.24	Rio Ave - Arouca	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
06.04.24	Rio Ave - Gil Vicente	3:0 ✺
30.03.24	Boavista - Rio Ave	0:0 ✺
16.03.24	Farense - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
16.12.23	Rio Ave - Vizela	1:1
29.01.23	Vizela - Rio Ave	3:1
06.08.22	Rio Ave - Vizela	0:1

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