Match Info

Premier League - First stage - Play Out - Round 14

Date: 19 December 2025, Friday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)

Referee: Zammit F. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Mosta		Naxxar Lions

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.48	3.2	2.52	Watch
	2.76	3.15	2.56
	2.61	3.34	2.47	Watch
	2.5	3	2.5
	2.57	3.18	2.45
	2.6	3	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.5)	3.15 ↓ (3.39)	2.49 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mosta
34.9%

Draw
28.7%

Naxxar Lions
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

27.1%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

26.2%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mosta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Naxxar Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mosta than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naxxar Lions than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Mosta - Naxxar Lions Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Udoh A. (G) 21. Agius 3. Bolanos M. 77. Brincat Z. (C) 11. Chibuike C. 10. Giancarlo 14. Joao Victor 96. Leo Fernandes 7. Scerri J. 74. Vassallo J. 42. Zibo S.	1. Debono M. (G) 18. Bolanos E. 20. Costa Goncalves G. 10. Farias E. (C) 7. Fenech M. 5. Gustavo Felipe 33. Joao Moura 22. Kontchou C. 8. Pace Cocks N. 4. Theo Kruger 11. Vitinho
Substitutes
31. Almamy S. K. 20. Caruana R. 15. Cauchi Z. 9. Daniel GTA 8. Eke C. 26. Emmanuel P. . Farrugia 33. Farrugia B. 99. Farrugia J. (G) 4. Farrugia K. 13. Luke U.	28. Bonanno G. 29. Borg J. 44. Bugeja F. 9. Firmino 14. Gauci C. 31. Hudson M. 13. Mariano 21. Micallef M. 25. Portelli O. 99. Vella A. (G) 24. Vinicius Baiano
Coaches
Grech J.	Muscat W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
32', 1 - 0, Giancarlo ⚽,
37', Giancarlo ↓, Eke C. ↑,
38', 1 - 1, Costa Goncalves G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', 2 - 1, Chibuike C. ⚽,
61', Scerri J. ↓, Emmanuel P. ↑,
67', Bolanos E. ↓, Firmino ↑,
69', Pace Cocks N. 🟨,
72', Vitinho ↓, Vinicius Baiano ↑,
81', Joao Moura 🟨,
82', Pace Cocks N. ↓, Bonanno G. ↑,
83', Chibuike C. 🟨,
83', Chibuike C. ↓, Daniel GTA ↑,
83', Brincat Z. ↓, Farrugia B. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Costa Goncalves G. ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 3, Joao Moura ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mosta won 3.

Mosta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Naxxar has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Naxxar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Naxxar has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Mosta won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mosta won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.7:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mosta FC
Maltese Premier League
12.12.25	Mosta - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1 ✺
24.11.25	Gżira United - Mosta	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Tarxien Rainbows - Mosta	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	3:0 ✺
24.10.25	Mosta - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TLWWT
- Naxxar Lions
Maltese Premier League
11.12.25	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	3:1 ✺
25.11.25	Paola Hibernians - Naxxar Lions	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	2:1 ✺
29.10.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	3:0 ✺
26.10.25	Naxxar Lions - Hamrun Spartans	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
29.10.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	3:0
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	2:1
Maltese Premier League
02.02.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	1:0
23.08.24	Naxxar Lions - Mosta	2:1
20.01.24	Naxxar Lions - Mosta	0:0
Club Friendly
18.08.23	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	3:3
27.08.21	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	2:2

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