Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Play Offs - Final

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles (Tegucigalpa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Motagua		CD Marathón

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.3	3.4
	1.78	3.21	4
	1.88	3.36	4.16	Watch
	1.91	3	3.9
	1.82	3.26	4.07	Watch
	1.89	3.25	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (1.94)	3.23 ↓ (3.4)	3.81 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motagua
48.4%

Draw
27.9%

CD Marathón
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

27.4%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.1%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motagua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

CD Marathón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Motagua - CD Marathón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ortiz L. (G) 19. De Olivera R. 5. Discua O. 27. Macias J. 35. Melendez C. (C) 8. Melendez D. 17. Portillo J. C. 23. Reyes A. 34. Sacaza G. 7. Serrano J. 4. Vega L.	1. Rougier J. (G) 19. Aguilera J. 3. Bodden K. 7. Castillo I. 9. Farioli B. 11. Messiniti N. 22. Nunez M. 27. Perez C. 10. Ramirez D. (C) 4. Rivera J. 30. Sacaza C.
Substitutes
21. Barrios A. 2. Cacho P. 10. Gomez R. 15. Hernandez A. 29. John Kleber 25. Licona M. (G) 77. Mejia C. 53. Oliva D. 56. Palma C. 26. Santamaria L. 12. Santos M. 6. Zapata R.	14. Arriaga Chavez J. A. 60. Arriaga L. 79. Castillo R. 26. Elvir S. 54. Fernandez J. 2. Figueroa H. 31. Juarez H. (G) 5. Martinez Hernandez F. E. 21. Ramos O. 23. Samudio C. (G) 41. Sevilla C. 8. Sorto Caballero T. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Rivera J. 🟨,
17', Serrano J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sacaza C. ↓, Elvir S. ↑,
46', Nunez M. ↓, Martinez Hernandez F. E. ↑,
59', Aguilera J. 🟨,
64', Messiniti N. ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
64', 🟨,
67', De Olivera R. 🟨,
70', Sacaza G. 🟨,
70', De Olivera R. ↓, John Kleber ↑,
75', Melendez D. ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
85', Perez C. ↓, Ramos O. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
Penalties (4 - 2)
1, Castillo R. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Gomez R. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Sorto Caballero T. A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, John Kleber (Penalty Awarded),
3, Castillo I. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Hernandez A. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Ramos O. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Portillo J. C. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Motagua will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 3 matches, drew 11 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Motagua won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.8:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marathon	8	5	2	1	14:6	8	17
4	Motagua	8	4	1	3	11:8	3	13

Last Results with these Odds

Motagua - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 48.05%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Motagua
Honduras Liga Nacional
21.05.26	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:1 ✺
18.05.26	Motagua - Génesis PN	2:1 ✺
12.05.26	Olancho - Motagua	0:2 ✺
09.05.26	Motagua - Olancho	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	Génesis PN - Motagua	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWWLT
- CD Marathón
Honduras Liga Nacional
21.05.26	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:1 ✺
18.05.26	Real España - CD Marathón	1:1 ✺
15.05.26	CD Marathón - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	1:0 ✺
06.05.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - CD Marathón	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	CD Marathón - Real España	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
21.05.26	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:1
09.04.26	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:0
15.02.26	Motagua - CD Marathón	1:1
25.10.25	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:0
17.08.25	Motagua - CD Marathón	3:3
29.03.25	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:1
30.01.25	Motagua - CD Marathón	2:2

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