Match Info

CONCACAF Central American Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles (Tegucigalpa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Tubi TV
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Motagua		Alajuelense

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	2.9	3	2.71
	2.85	2.81	2.71	Watch
	2.73	2.73	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (3.03)	2.85 ↑ (2.29)	2.69 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motagua
32.9%

Draw
32.6%

Alajuelense
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

40.1%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

39.2%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motagua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Alajuelense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alajuelense than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alajuelense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Motagua - Alajuelense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ortiz L. (G) 35. Melendez C. 2. Cardozo Coitinho S. 4. Vega L. 17. Portillo J. 7. Serrano J. 8. Melendez D. 23. Nunez J. 10. Gomez R. 77. Mejia C. 29. John Kleber	23. Ortega Olivera W. J. (G) 26. Pinar F. 4. Villalobos Alfaro G. 13. Gamboa A. 24. Salazar A. 7. Hernandez A. 12. Campbell J. 35. Parkins R. 21. Michel K. 18. Cisneros R. 33. Lucumi J.
Substitutes
14. Argueta C. 28. Avila A. 11. Cabrera M. 26. Crisanto L. 51. Garcia J. 25. Licona M. (G) 27. Macias J. 21. Melendez L. 34. Sacaza G. 31. Turcios-Castillo J. (G) 38. Vazquez M. 6. Zapata R.	99. Alvarez J. (G) 36. Badilla I. 5. Borges C. 14. Bran Flores A. J. 11. Campos D. 38. Demetrius T. 43. Forstner C. 1. Mora B. (G) 8. Quesada E. 90. Rodriguez D. 15. Samadian F.
Coaches
Lopez J.	Ramirez O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Gomez R. (Pen),
27', Parkins R. 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Campbell J. ⚽, Hernandez A. (A),
37', John Kleber 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lucumi J. ↓, Campos D. ↑,
59', Mejia C. ↓, Macias J. ↑,
66', Nunez J. ↓, Crisanto L. ↑,
72', Salazar A. 🟨,
75', Salazar A. ↓, Bran Flores A. J. ↑,
75', Cisneros R. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
84', Gomez R. ↓, Melendez L. ↑,
85', Serrano J. ↓, Sacaza G. ↑,
85', John Kleber ↓, Vazquez M. ↑,
87', Campbell J. 🟨,
88', Hernandez A. ↓, Demetrius T. ↑,
89', Pinar F. ↓, Quesada E. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Campos D. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.

Motagua is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alajuelense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Motagua may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Alajuelense has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Alajuelense - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 29.67%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Motagua
CONCACAF Central American Cup
23.09.25	Alajuelense - Motagua	0:1 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
20.09.25	Motagua - Juticalpa	0:0 ✺
17.09.25	Platense - Motagua	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Motagua - Lobos UPNFM	3:3 ✺
10.09.25	Choloma - Motagua	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 WTWTW
- LD Alajuelense
Costa Rican Primera Division
26.09.25	Alajuelense - Puntarenas FC	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
23.09.25	Alajuelense - Motagua	0:1 ✺
Costa Rican Primera Division
20.09.25	Guadalupe - Alajuelense	0:0 ✺
16.09.25	Alajuelense - San Carlos	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Alajuelense - Municipal Liberia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Central American Cup
23.09.25	Alajuelense - Motagua	0:1
31.08.23	Alajuelense - Motagua	5:1

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