Match Info

Challenge League - Round 12

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)


	Mtarfa		Mġarr United

	1	X	2
	20	8.6	1.06	Watch
	12.92	8.83	1.11	Watch
	13	8	1.13
	11.5	9.4	1.09
	14	6.33	1.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	14.28 ↑ (11.5)	8.23 ↑ (6.62)	1.1 ↓ (1.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mtarfa
6.4%

Draw
11%

Mġarr United
82.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

7.7%

13.5%

78.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mtarfa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Mġarr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Mtarfa - Mġarr United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Cristhyan Noto ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Ilic O. ⚽,
45+4', Arriagada F. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
62', 1 - 2, Cristhyan Noto ⚽,
72', 1 - 3, Cristhyan Noto ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: )).

Mtarfa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mġarr United's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mtarfa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mġarr United is the clear favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mtarfa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Mtarfa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Mgarr	2	1	0	1	3:4	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mtarfa FC
Maltese Challenge League
11.01.26	Żurrieq - Mtarfa	1:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Pietà Hotspurs - Mtarfa	5:0 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
20.12.25	Mtarfa - Gudja United	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Fgura United - Mtarfa	8:0 ✺
11.12.25	Mtarfa - Żebbuġ Rangers	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24 TLLLW
- Mġarr United
Maltese Challenge League
10.01.26	Mġarr United - Swieqi United	5:1 ✺
21.12.25	Mġarr United - Sirens	2:3 ✺
13.12.25	Pietà Hotspurs - Mġarr United	1:1 ✺
10.12.25	Mġarr United - Melita	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Marsa - Mġarr United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge Cup
27.02.25	Mġarr United - Mtarfa	1:0
Maltese Challenge League
19.10.24	Mtarfa - Mġarr United	0:2

Mtarfa - Mġarr United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide