Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 29

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday


	Murata		Fiorentino

	1	X	2
	8.1	5.15	1.26	Watch
	6.11	5.72	1.26
	7.07	5.86	1.29	Watch
	7.65	5.65	1.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.23 ↑ (5.43)	5.6 ↓ (5.64)	1.27 ↓ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Murata
12.5%

Draw
16.2%

Fiorentino
71.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17%

16.3%

66.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.1%

15.4%

70.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Murata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Fiorentino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Murata than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentino than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Murata - Fiorentino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
29', 0 - 1, Abouzziane S. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Labas J. ⚽, Isaraj A. (A),
42', 1 - 2, Ben Kacem M. ⚽, Evaristi M. (A),
45+2', 1 - 3, Abouzziane S. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
86', 1 - 4, Pesciarelli M. ⚽, Abouzziane S. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murata won 2.

Murata has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fiorentino is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Fiorentino is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Fiorentino will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Murata won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Murata won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Fiorentino	4	1	1	2	4:5	-1	4
12	Murata	4	1	0	3	4:10	-6	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Murata
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
12.04.26	Virtus - Murata	4:1 ✺
08.04.26	Murata - Tre Fiori	0:3 ✺
21.03.26	Pennarossa - Murata	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Murata - Tre Penne	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	San Giovanni - Murata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FC Fiorentino
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
11.04.26	Fiorentino - Faetano	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	San Marino Academy U22 - Fiorentino	0:3 ✺
21.03.26	Fiorentino - AC Libertas	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Cailungo - Fiorentino	1:3 ✺
07.03.26	Cosmos - Fiorentino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
20.12.25	Fiorentino - Murata	3:0
29.03.25	Murata - Fiorentino	1:0
01.12.24	Fiorentino - Murata	1:0
13.01.24	Fiorentino - Murata	2:1
11.04.23	Murata - Fiorentino	2:1
18.12.22	Fiorentino - Murata	1:0
16.05.19	Murata - Fiorentino	3:0

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