Match Info

SPAIN: COPA DEL REY - 1/32-FINALS

Date: 21 December 2022, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida) 🌤️ ...

Referee: De La Fuente Ramos O. (Esp)


	Mérida AD		Deportivo Alavés

	1	X	2
	4	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.5	3.3	1.98
	3.85	3.15	2
	3.6	3.25	2.03
	3.86	3.23	1.96
	3.8	3.3	2.05	Watch
	3.82	3.36	1.96	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.75 ↑ (3.11)	3.26 ↑ (3.18)	2.01 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
24.9%

Draw
28.7%

Deportivo Alavés
46.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.7%

29%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

28.3%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Deportivo Alavés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Alavés's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mérida AD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportivo Alavés, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	16.7%	79.2%

Mérida AD - Deportivo Alavés Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Mérida AD will win (votes: 1 - 4.2%). Alavés will win (votes: 19 - 79.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alavés: 63% – 95.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Mérida AD is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Alavés is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Mérida AD could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Alavés will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.12.22	Córdoba - Mérida AD	1:2 ✺
11.12.22	Mérida AD - Badajoz	1:0 ✺
06.12.22	Fuenlabrada - Mérida AD	0:1 ✺
03.12.22	Mérida AD - Rayo Majadahonda	1:2 ✺
27.11.22	Ferrol - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 WWWLT
- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga2
18.12.22	Málaga - Deportivo Alavés	1:0 ✺
12.12.22	Deportivo Alavés - Levante	0:2 ✺
07.12.22	Tenerife - Deportivo Alavés	2:1 ✺
02.12.22	Granada - Deportivo Alavés	3:1 ✺
26.11.22	Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal B	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.11.26	Lugo - Mérida AD	✺
- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
31.10.26	Barcelona - Deportivo Alavés	✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.26	Anaitasuna - Deportivo Alavés	✺

Mérida AD - Deportivo Alavés