Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 34

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo de Lasesarre (Barakaldo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Barakaldo		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.1	3.7
	2.02	3.1	3.6
	1.99	3.1	3.88
	2	3.24	3.83	Watch
	1.95	2.88	3.7
	1.93	3.08	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.86)	3.08 ↓ (3.23)	3.77 ↓ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
46.3%

Draw
29.5%

Lugo
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

28.2%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

28.3%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Barakaldo - Lugo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Campos G. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 4. Dufur U. 18. Arana M. 16. Lopez O. 15. Castillo I. 5. Molina E. 20. Mandiang S. 8. Huidobro J. 11. Perez E. 19. Galarza A.	13. Piedra I. (G) 20. Lopez I. 3. Garriz I. 16. Jose Amo 6. Haro P. 10. Alba T. 8. Balboa A. 14. Presa K. 25. Sanchez B. 15. Reniero N. 19. Unzueta I.
Substitutes
23. Albizua U. 12. Cabo J. 17. de Leon J. 3. Garcia B. 1. Ispizua I. (G) 14. Munoz I. 6. Naveira U. 7. Pedernales I. 24. Ropero I. 10. Sabin 22. Torra M. 9. Valino A.	31. Aday 26. Balcedo T. 9. Celorio N. 18. Costa G. 5. Gallar A. 23. Junior L. 1. Martinez M. (G) 12. Perera A. 2. Rodriguez Y. 22. Samanes S. 21. Teofilovic O. 4. Trigueros P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Huidobro J. ⚽,
26', Alba T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Haro P. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
46', Sanchez B. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
46', Presa K. ↓, Perera A. ↑,
54', 2 - 0, Perez E. ⚽,
60', Perera A. 🟨,
66', de Jesus B. ↓, de Leon J. ↑,
66', Mandiang S. ↓, Pedernales I. ↑,
69', Alba T. ↓, Aday ↑,
72', Perez E. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
72', Molina E. ↓, Naveira U. ↑,
74', Jose Amo 🟨,
76', Naveira U. 🟨,
82', Dufur U. 🟨,
83', Balboa A. ↓, Gallar A. ↑,
86', 🟨,
86', Lopez O. ↓, Albizua U. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 0, Castillo I. ⚽,
90+5', Lopez I. 🟥,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 and 11).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Barakaldo is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Barakaldo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Barakaldo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16
16	Barakaldo	6	1	3	2	6:9	-3	6

Last Results with these Odds

Barakaldo - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 48.98%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.04.26	Ponferradina - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Barakaldo - Arenteiro	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Pontevedra - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
27.03.26	Barakaldo - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Ferrol - Barakaldo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLWT
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.04.26	Lugo - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Ourense CF - Lugo	4:2 ✺
05.04.26	Lugo - Osasuna B	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Cacereño - Lugo	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Lugo - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
31.10.25	Lugo - Barakaldo	2:2
09.03.25	Barakaldo - Lugo	3:2
15.09.24	Lugo - Barakaldo	0:0

Upcoming Matches