Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 32

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, TVG 2


	Ourense CF		Lugo

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	3.4
	2.28	3	3.1
	2.21	3.29	3.56
	2.29	3.15	3.16	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.25
	2.19	3.03	3.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.45)	3.05 ↑ (3)	3.34 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
42%

Draw
30.3%

Lugo
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

31%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

30.4%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Ourense CF - Lugo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 5. Prado M. 4. Carmona F. (C) 12. Jelbat A. 14. Perez A. 24. Moreno C. 6. Castillo N. 8. Ramos J. 17. Hernandez R. 9. Sergio Benito 10. Ochoa M.	1. Martinez M. (C) 2. Rodriguez Y. 3. Garriz I. 16. Jose Amo 6. Haro P. 14. Presa K. 12. Perera A. 11. Pastrana V. 10. Alba T. 5. Gallar A. 15. Reniero N.
Substitutes
11. Aranzabe A. 7. Bouzaig A. 21. Guerrero A. 20. Gueye L. 16. Munoz D. 23. Punzano I. 18. Rabadan D. 15. Rivas L. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 3. Sanz H. 22. Yuste A.	8. Balboa A. 9. Celorio N. 18. Costa G. 7. Gonzalez J. 23. Junior L. 20. Lopez I. 13. Piedra I. (G) 22. Samanes S. 21. Teofilovic O. 4. Trigueros P. 19. Unzueta I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
8', Alba T. ↓, Unzueta I. ↑,
14', Perez A. ↓, Aranzabe A. ↑,
18', Perera A. 🟨,
30', Unzueta I. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Castillo N. (Penalty Awarded),
35', 2 - 0, Ochoa M. ⚽,
45+1', Rodriguez Y. 🟨,
45+3', 3 - 0, Sergio Benito ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', Perera A. 🟨,
56', 4 - 0, Sergio Benito ⚽,
58', Carmona F. 🟨,
58', Reniero N. ↓, Celorio N. ↑,
58', Gallar A. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
62', Hernandez R. ↓, Guerrero A. ↑,
62', Aranzabe A. ↓, Yuste A. ↑,
65', 4 - 1, Unzueta I. ⚽,
70', Castillo N. ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
70', Ochoa M. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
75', Garriz I. 🟨,
76', Rodriguez Y. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
77', Munoz D. 🟨,
80', Sergio Benito ↓, Bouzaig A. ↑,
83', Pastrana V. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
83', Lopez I. 🟨,
90+3', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
90+7', Haro P. 🟨,
90+8', 4 - 2, Unzueta I. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Ourense CF is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lugo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ourense CF might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ourense CF won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ourense CF won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
05.04.26	Real Avilés - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Ourense CF - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Pontevedra - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Ourense CF - Ferrol	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Barakaldo - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTTTL
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
05.04.26	Lugo - Osasuna B	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Cacereño - Lugo	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Lugo - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Tenerife - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.12.25	Lugo - Ourense CF	2:1
29.03.25	Lugo - Ourense CF	0:2
11.01.25	Ourense CF - Lugo	2:1
Club Friendly
23.07.22	Ourense CF - Lugo	0:3

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