Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 33

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Lugo		Talavera de la Reina

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.9	3.2
	2.15	3	3.35
	2.27	3.17	3.26
	2.11	3.21	3.51	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.1
	2.29	3.02	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.05)	3.03 ↓ (3.26)	3.29 ↓ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
41.7%

Draw
30.3%

Talavera de la Reina
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

28.5%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

28.6%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Talavera de la Reina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Lugo - Talavera de la Reina Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra I. (G) 20. Lopez I. 16. Jose Amo 4. Trigueros P. 6. Haro P. 8. Balboa A. 9. Celorio N. 14. Presa K. (C) 11. Pastrana V. 15. Reniero N. 7. Gonzalez J.	13. Belman (G) 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. (C) 15. Acosta L. 5. Molina S. 2. Cuenca D. 14. Molina A. 6. Pitu 16. Navarro I. 20. Ferni 7. Di Renzo G. 21. Montero Sergio
Substitutes
10. Alba T. 26. Balcedo T. 5. Gallar A. 23. Junior L. 1. Martinez M. (G) 2. Rodriguez Y. 22. Samanes S. 25. Sanchez B. 21. Teofilovic O. 19. Unzueta I.	18. Capo P. 23. Farrando M. 1. Gonzalez J. (G) 4. Lopez A. 9. Moreno M. 24. Nordin M. 3. Roig A. 8. Sanchez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Pastrana V. ↓, Gallar A. ↑,
16', Presa K. 🟨,
45', 🟨,
45+6', 🟨,
45+6', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', 🟨,
51', 🟥,
79', 🟨,
85', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Lugo has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Talavera has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Talavera may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lugo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lugo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16

Last Results with these Odds

Lugo - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.26%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.04.26	Ourense CF - Lugo	4:2 ✺
05.04.26	Lugo - Osasuna B	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Cacereño - Lugo	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Lugo - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLWTL
- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.04.26	Talavera de la Reina - Zamora	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
28.03.26	Talavera de la Reina - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	CD Guadalajara - Talavera de la Reina	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Talavera de la Reina - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.09.25	Talavera de la Reina - Lugo	1:0

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