Match Info

FA Trophy - 1/8-finals

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday


	Mġarr United		Mosta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.15	3.75	1.65	Watch
	3.53	4.18	1.67
	3.77	4.33	1.69	Watch
	4	3.75	1.65
	4.31	4.05	1.61
	3.66	3.5	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.9 ↓ (4.55)	3.93 ↑ (3.75)	1.67 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mġarr United
23.1%

Draw
23%

Mosta
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.8%

24%

56.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.2%

23.2%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mġarr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Mosta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mġarr United than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mosta than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Mġarr United - Mosta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Diamanka C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', 0 - 2, Leo Fernandes ⚽,
83', 0 - 3, Emmanuel P. ⚽,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Mosta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mosta is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mġarr United
Maltese Challenge League
18.01.26	Mtarfa - Mġarr United	1:3 ✺
10.01.26	Mġarr United - Swieqi United	5:1 ✺
21.12.25	Mġarr United - Sirens	2:3 ✺
13.12.25	Pietà Hotspurs - Mġarr United	1:1 ✺
10.12.25	Mġarr United - Melita	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLTL
- Mosta FC
Maltese Premier League
25.01.26	Floriana - Mosta	2:1 ✺
16.01.26	Mosta - Valletta	0:5 ✺
11.01.26	Paola Hibernians - Mosta	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Mosta - Tarxien Rainbows	2:2 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Mosta - Mqabba	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLWTW

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