Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 13

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Mławianka Mława		Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.65	2.75
	2.08	3.91	2.81	Watch
	1.95	3.45	2.85
	2.12	3.88	2.85	Watch
	2.09	3.41	2.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.11)	3.66 ↑ (3.41)	2.81 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mławianka Mława
43.6%

Draw
24.5%

Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński
31.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42%

26%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

26.4%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mławianka Mława has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mławianka Mława than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Mławianka Mława - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Rakels D. ⚽,
22', 2 - 0, Lewandowski F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 2 - 1, Stawski J. ⚽,
56', 2 - 2, ⚽,
68', 3 - 2, Rojkowski T. ⚽,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 16th in the Relegation and 15th).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Mławianka is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Mławianka has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:3 (averaging 2.7:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mławianka against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals (averaging 2:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Lidzbark Warminski	14	4	3	7	24:27	-3	15
16	Mlawa	14	4	2	8	27:37	-10	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mławianka Mława
Polish Division 3 - Group I
10.10.26	Olimpia Elbląg - Mławianka Mława	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Mławianka Mława - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	2:4 ✺
25.09.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Mławianka Mława	3:4 ✺
19.09.26	Mławianka Mława - Troszyn	4:1 ✺
12.09.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Mławianka Mława	7:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LLWWL
- Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński
Polish Division 3 - Group I
10.10.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - ŁKS Łomża	3:2 ✺
03.10.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Weszło	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Pelikan Łowicz - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Warta Sieradz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.07.25	Mławianka Mława - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	3:0
Polish Division 3 - Group I
22.03.25	Mławianka Mława - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	1:1
25.08.24	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Mławianka Mława	2:4

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