Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa do Nordeste - Round 6

Date: 18 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, Premiere


	Náutico Capibaribe		América RN

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	4.33
	1.85	3.2	4.1
	1.83	3.25	4.1
	1.86	3.25	4.41
	1.81	3.31	4.28
	1.91	3	4
	1.79	3.49	4.44	Watch
	1.83	3.25	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.04)	3.27 ↑ (3.2)	4.22 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
50.2%

Draw
28.1%

América RN
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

28.6%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

28.3%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Náutico Capibaribe's performance.

América RN has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América RN than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	13.6%	22.7%

Náutico Capibaribe - América RN Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 13 - 65%). América RN will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Náutico: 44.1% – 85.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Muriel Becker (C) 33. Carlinhos 16. Felipe Santana 7. Helio Borges 6. Luiz Paulo 8. Marco Antonio 17. Marcos Ytalo 20. Patrick Allan 3. Rayan 11. Vinicius 22. Wenderson	1. Renan Braganca (G) 6. Antonio 30. Davi Gabriel 33. Ferreira 11. Giva 4. Guilherme Paraiba 36. Iran 37. Italo M. 32. Lucas Mendes 31. Rennan Siqueira 8. Souza (C)
Substitutes
2. Arnaldo 80. Bruno Mezenga 35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 23. Igor Fernandes 5. Igor Pereira 27. Kauan Maranhao 15. Kayon 48. Leandro Kaua 12. Leo Coltro 29. Renato Alves 39. Rodrigo Leal 1. Wellerson R. (G)	5. Gabriel Araujo 27. Hebert 19. Henrique 45. Lucao (G) 22. Lucas Rodrigues 7. Luidy 28. Marquinhos 23. Nathan Lourenco 9. Ricardo Bueno 25. Robson Lopes 26. Thailor 10. Thiaguinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Ferreira 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Patrick Allan ⚽,
45+2', Rennan Siqueira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Antonio ↓, Henrique ↑,
46', Luiz Paulo ↓, Igor Fernandes ↑,
62', Ferreira ↓, Robson Lopes ↑,
68', Felipe Santana ↓, Igor Pereira ↑,
69', Marco Antonio ↓, Renato Alves ↑,
71', Rayan 🟨,
74', Helio Borges 🟨,
74', Giva ↓, Thailor ↑,
74', Davi Gabriel ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,
76', Helio Borges ↓, Kauan Maranhao ↑,
81', Italo M. ↓, Luidy ↑,
81', Wenderson ↓, Kayon ↑,
87', 🟨,
89', 🟨,
89', 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 6 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Náutico won 2.

Náutico is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches América RN is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Náutico could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Náutico have a series of guest games.

In this match Náutico is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Náutico won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:6 (average 0.7:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Náutico won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:1 (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.03.25	Sampaio Corrêa - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
03.03.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.02.25	CS Alagoano - Náutico Capibaribe	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
22.02.25	Decisão - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WTLLL
- América RN
Brazilian Campeonato Potiguar
15.03.25	América RN - Santa Cruz de Natal	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	Santa Cruz de Natal - América RN	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.03.25	Ceará - América RN	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.02.25	União Carmolandense - América RN	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
18.02.25	América RN - Confiança	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.03.24	América RN - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
Brazilian Serie C
27.05.23	Náutico Capibaribe - América RN	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
21.11.14	América RN - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
23.08.14	Náutico Capibaribe - América RN	2:1
Copa do Brasil
13.05.14	Náutico Capibaribe - América RN	2:0
06.05.14	América RN - Náutico Capibaribe	3:0

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