The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Náutico Capibaribe 20.7%
Draw 24.7%
Grêmio Novorizontino 54.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
32.2%
27.8%
40%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.4%
27.1%
41%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Náutico Capibaribe's form might have worsened.
Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio Novorizontino's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+10.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Náutico Capibaribe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-13.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - over (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 15. Leo Indio 3. Betao 23. Igor Fernandes 8. Wenderson 41. Samuel Felix 29. Junior Todinho 10. Jean Carlos (C) 7. Vinicius 72. Derek
93. Jordi (G) 2. Madson 26. Gabriel Bahia 4. Patrick 5. Sander 41. Reidiney 17. Matheus Bianqui 6. Luis Oyama 30. Nicolas Careca 10. Romulo 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
5. Auremir 24. Borasi B. 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 46. Gustavo Henrique 19. Kauan Maranhao 27. Luiz Felipe 22. Nunez P. 9. Paulo Sergio 93. Reginaldo 6. Ryan Carlos 11. Victor Andrade 34. Wanderson
9. Carlao 3. Carlinhos 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 14. Eduardo Brock 77. Helio Borges 50. Juninho 18. Leo Naldi 28. Marlon 66. Maykon Jesus 7. Ronald Barcellos
Coaches
Bruno Pivetti
Moreira E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Nicolas Careca ⚽, Luis Oyama (A),
14', 0 - 2, Romulo (Penalty Awarded),
18', Reidiney 🟨,
21', Betao 🟨,
25', Junior Todinho 🟨,
32', Matheus Bianqui ↓, Leo Naldi ↑,
35', Robson ↓, Carlao ↑,
38', Junior Todinho ↓, Borasi B. ↑,
45+2', Leo Indio 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Leo Indio ↓, Wanderson ↑,
46', Derek ↓, Kauan Maranhao ↑,
46', Reidiney ↓, Helio Borges ↑,
59', Gabriel Bahia ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
59', Nicolas Careca ↓, Maykon Jesus ↑,
64', Leo Naldi 🟨,
69', Samuel Felix ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
73', Arnaldo ↓, Paulo Sergio ↑,
Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 13th and 4th in the Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Playoffs - Final)).
Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Novorizontino holding a narrow advantage.
Confirmed absences for Náutico: Igor Fernandes
(Inactive)
Mateus Silva
(Inactive)
Matheus Ribeiro
(Injury).
Confirmed absences for Novorizontino: Renato Palm
(Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Náutico: Danielzinho
(Inactive).
In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Náutico has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:9 (averaging 1.7:3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Náutico against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals.
Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now
Novorizontino: 23.04% Nautico: 0.3%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Novorizontino
32
16
9
7
54:27
27
57
13
Nautico
32
11
9
12
39:40
-1
42
Last Results with these Odds
Náutico Capibaribe - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.15%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
Brazil
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Muriel Becker (G) 
Borasi B. 
Guruceaga G. (G) 
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