Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 21

Date: 20 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Hiiu Stadium (Tallinn)

Referee: Maalinn R. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee


	Nõmme Kalju		Tallinna Kalev

	1	X	2
	1.21	5.75	9.75
	1.24	5.5	7.9	Watch
	1.21	6.68	11.57
	1.09	9.98	17.84	Watch
	1.25	5.5	10
	1.27	5.8	8.15	Watch
	1.13	7.5	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↑ (1.18)	6.67 ↓ (7)	11.03 ↑ (10.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme Kalju
77.6%

Draw
14%

Tallinna Kalev
8.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

77.8%

13.1%

9.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme Kalju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Tallinna Kalev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Nõmme Kalju - Tallinna Kalev Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Nõmme Kalju will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Nõmme Kalju (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Kalev (5.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Nõmme Kalju (votes: 1 - 20%). Kalev (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
69. Pavlov M. (G) 78. Mashchenko D. 50. Podholjuzin M. (C) 5. Korre U. 22. Nikolajev A. 10. Ivanov N. 26. Siht R. 79. Marin P. 87. Guilherme Smith 30. Jabir I. 27. Mannilaan M.	13. Weinstein M. (G) 6. Palutaja H. 66. Kajari E. 4. Jallow M. 22. Sotsugov D. (C) 17. Smirnov R. 2. Famuditimi H. 9. Usta T. 24. Sukunda Z. 5. Kollo A. 12. Purje A.
Substitutes
21. Baptista T. 4. Boronilstsikov A. 6. Kask K. 96. Kindel J. (G) 3. Liit S. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E. 8. Musolitin O. 11. Orlov M. 29. Patrikejevs I. 20. Tambedou M. 7. Tarassenkov D.	31. De Pizzol O. 23. Ernits R. 21. Ilves R. 10. Jurisoo T. 99. Lepp S. (G) 18. Mihhailov V. 11. Nigula R. 37. Shevyakov D. 16. Surogin A. 14. Svedovski A. 19. Tomberg M.
Coaches
Andreev N.	Barengrub A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Guilherme Smith ⚽, Ivanov N. (A),
25', 2 - 0, Ivanov N. (Pen),
31', Jallow M. 🟨,
38', Purje A. 🟨,
45+1', 3 - 0, Jabir I. ⚽, Mannilaan M. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Mannilaan M. ↓, Baptista T. ↑,
46', Purje A. ↓, Svedovski A. ↑,
46', Sotsugov D. ↓, Surogin A. ↑,
60', 4 - 0, Jabir I. ⚽, Guilherme Smith (A),
62', Jabir I. ↓, Lotar Eyang E. E. ↑,
62', Korre U. ↓, Orlov M. ↑,
70', Usta T. ↓, Jurisoo T. ↑,
70', Sukunda Z. ↓, Ilves R. ↑,
70', Ivanov N. ↓, Orlov M. ↑,
70', Mashchenko D. ↓, Liit S. ↑,
72', 5 - 0, Orlov M. ⚽, Baptista T. (A),
76', 5 - 1, Jallow M. ⚽, Famuditimi H. (A),
82', Smirnov R. ↓, Tomberg M. ↑,
85', 5 - 2, Tomberg M. ⚽, Jurisoo T. (A),
88', 6 - 2, Baptista T. ⚽, Guilherme Smith (A),
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 5.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Nõmme Kalju may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Nõmme Kalju has had a series of away games.

In this match, Nõmme Kalju is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 51:12. (average 2.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme Kalju won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:8. (average 2.8:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme Kalju FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.07.25	Partizani Tirana - Nõmme Kalju	0:1 ET ✺
10.07.25	Nõmme Kalju - Partizani Tirana	1:1 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
06.07.25	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	1:0 ✺
27.06.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	2:2 ✺
21.06.25	Levadia Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTLTL
- Tallinna Kalev
Estonian Meistriliiga
13.07.25	Tallinna Kalev - Harju JK Laagri	3:1 ✺
06.07.25	Tallinna Kalev - Tammeka	3:2 ✺
29.06.25	Flora Tallinn - Tallinna Kalev	3:1 ✺
18.06.25	Levadia Tallinn - Tallinna Kalev	4:0 ✺
14.06.25	Tallinna Kalev - Pärnu Vaprus	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
01.06.25	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme Kalju	0:1
Estonian Cup
13.05.25	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme Kalju	0:5
Estonian Meistriliiga
22.04.25	Nõmme Kalju - Tallinna Kalev	6:1
22.09.24	Nõmme Kalju - Tallinna Kalev	3:1
03.08.24	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme Kalju	0:2
18.06.24	Nõmme Kalju - Tallinna Kalev	2:0
27.04.24	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme Kalju	0:2

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