Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 16

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: Manschot J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN Extra


	NAC Breda		Utrecht

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.5	3	Watch
	2.38	3.45	2.92
	2.4	3.52	3.01
	2.35	3.49	2.93	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.88
	2.42	3.44	2.96	Watch
	2.36	3.4	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (3.2)	3.44 ↓ (3.53)	2.93 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
40.1%

Draw
27.6%

Utrecht
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

26.7%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

26.8%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in NAC Breda's performance.

Utrecht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Utrecht might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with NAC Breda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Utrecht could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.9%	16.7%	44.4%

NAC Breda - Utrecht Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Breda will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Utrecht will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Utrecht: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 2 - 40%). Utrecht (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 25. Valerius C. 3. Odoi D. 22. Hillen R. 4. Kemper B. (C) 8. Leemans C. 16. Balard M. 90. Holtby L. 32. Talvitie J. 14. Sowah K. 11. Paula R.	1. Barkas V. (G) 23. Vesterlund N. 3. van der Hoorn M. 24. Viergever N. (C) 16. El Karouani S. 27. Engwanda A. 21. Zechiel G. 22. Rodriguez M. 7. Jensen V. 10. Cathline Y. 20. de Wit D.
Substitutes
7. Brym C. 55. Ghalidi B. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 15. Mahmutovic E. 10. Nassoh M. 26. Reulen P. 9. Soumano M. 6. Staring C. 17. van Hooijdonk S. 18. van Reeuwijk D.	15. Blake A. 8. Bozdogan C. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 11. Demircan E. 44. Eerdhuijzen M. 43. El Arguioui R. 53. Eversen J. (G) 5. Finnsson K. 91. Haller S. 2. Horemans S. 26. Jonathans M. 46. van Ommeren J.
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Jans R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', Odoi D. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Paula R. ⚽, Talvitie J. (A),
26', 1 - 1, de Wit D. ⚽, El Karouani S. (A),
36', Leemans C. 🟨,
38', de Wit D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', Leemans C. ↓, Nassoh M. ↑,
67', Paula R. ↓, van Hooijdonk S. ↑,
67', Holtby L. ↓, Ghalidi B. ↑,
68', Zechiel G. ↓, Bozdogan C. ↑,
68', de Wit D. ↓, Haller S. ↑,
68', Rodriguez M. ↓, Blake A. ↑,
76', Vesterlund N. 🟨,
81', Haller S. ↓, Demircan E. ↑,
81', Vesterlund N. ↓, Horemans S. ↑,
83', Talvitie J. ↓, Soumano M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Utrecht may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Breda: Candelaria J. (Injury) Greiml L. (Injury) Jensen F. (Injury)

There will not play in Utrecht: Min D. (Injury) Murkin D. (Inactive) van den Berg D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Breda: Kongolo T. (Health problems) Soumano M. (Health problems)

There are questionable in Utrecht: Didden M. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Breda won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:33. (average 1.6:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 1.6:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
07.12.25	Sparta Rotterdam - NAC Breda	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Excelsior - NAC Breda	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	NAC Breda - PSV Eindhoven	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Volendam - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	NAC Breda - Go Ahead Eagles	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLLW
- FC Utrecht
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Utrecht - Nottingham Forest	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
07.12.25	Utrecht - Twente	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Utrecht	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Betis - Utrecht	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
23.11.25	Telstar - Utrecht	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
01.03.25	Utrecht - NAC Breda	1:0
24.08.24	NAC Breda - Utrecht	1:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.12.21	NAC Breda - Utrecht	3:2
Dutch Eredivisie
16.03.19	NAC Breda - Utrecht	0:4
05.10.18	Utrecht - NAC Breda	2:1
23.12.17	NAC Breda - Utrecht	3:1
29.10.17	Utrecht - NAC Breda	2:2

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