Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel (Rotterdam)

Referee: Nijhuis B. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	Sparta Rotterdam		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.5	3	Watch
	2.42	3.35	2.95
	2.42	3.6	3.04
	2.35	3.44	2.97	Watch
	2.25	3.3	2.9
	2.35	3.5	3.04	Watch
	2.36	3.33	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (1.84)	3.43 ↓ (3.87)	2.97 ↓ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sparta Rotterdam
40.4%

Draw
27.7%

NAC Breda
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

24.4%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

24.1%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sparta Rotterdam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sparta Rotterdam's form might have worsened.

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting NAC Breda's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sparta Rotterdam, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for NAC Breda, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	62.5%	18.7%

Sparta Rotterdam - NAC Breda Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Sparta Rotterdam will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Breda will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Breda (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Drommel J. (G) 2. Sambo S. 3. Young M. 4. Quintero T. 5. Kleijn M. 8. Kitolano J. (C) 10. Santos A. 6. Baas J. 7. Oufkir A. 9. Lauritsen T. 11. Mito S.	99. Bielica D. (G) 25. Valerius C. 3. Odoi D. 22. Hillen R. 4. Kemper B. (C) 90. Holtby L. 10. Nassoh M. 16. Balard M. 32. Talvitie J. 14. Sowah K. 11. Paula R.
Substitutes
12. Bakari S. 20. Bednarek F. (G) 17. Clement P. 16. de Guzman J. 21. Duijvestijn L. 22. el Meftahi Y. 30. Kuiper P. (G) 13. Martes L. 19. Thorisson N. 18. Toornstra J. 15. van Aanholt P. 14. Velthuis T.	7. Brym C. 55. Ghalidi B. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 8. Leemans C. 2. Lucassen B. 15. Mahmutovic E. 26. Reulen P. 6. Staring C. 17. van Hooijdonk S. 18. van Reeuwijk D. 23. Versluis D.
Coaches
Driessen J.	Hoefkens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Mito S. ⚽, Kitolano J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kitolano J. ↓, Clement P. ↑,
57', Santos A. ↓, Duijvestijn L. ↑,
57', Oufkir A. ↓, el Meftahi Y. ↑,
74', Holtby L. ↓, Brym C. ↑,
74', Nassoh M. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,
74', Paula R. ↓, van Hooijdonk S. ↑,
75', Kleijn M. ↓, van Aanholt P. ↑,
86', Balard M. ↓, Ghalidi B. ↑,
89', Hillen R. ↓, Reulen P. ↑,
89', Mito S. ↓, Bakari S. ↑,
90+1', Baas J. 🟨,
90+5', Ghalidi B. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sparta Rotterdam won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Sparta Rotterdam could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Sparta Rotterdam: Ltaief S. (Inactive) Martins Indi B. (Injury)

There will not play in Breda: Greiml L. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Sparta Rotterdam won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sparta Rotterdam won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:8. (average 1.6:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sparta Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
29.11.25	NEC Nijmegen - Sparta Rotterdam	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Fortuna Sittard	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Zwolle - Sparta Rotterdam	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
30.10.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Groningen	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LTLLW
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
29.11.25	Excelsior - NAC Breda	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	NAC Breda - PSV Eindhoven	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Volendam - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	NAC Breda - Go Ahead Eagles	1:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
29.10.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
07.03.25	NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam	1:1
07.12.24	Sparta Rotterdam - NAC Breda	0:2
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Sparta Rotterdam - NAC Breda	2:1
22.08.20	Sparta Rotterdam - NAC Breda	1:1
20.07.19	Sparta Rotterdam - NAC Breda	3:0
14.07.18	NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam	1:3
Dutch Eredivisie
18.04.18	Sparta Rotterdam - NAC Breda	2:1

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