Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 14

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Woudestein (Rotterdam)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	Excelsior		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.7	Watch
	2.42	3.7	2.72
	2.48	3.65	2.81
	2.16	3.58	3.17	Watch
	2.42	3.61	2.94	Watch
	2.4	3.6	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.14)	3.61 ↑ (3.53)	2.83 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior
39.9%

Draw
26.4%

NAC Breda
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

26.6%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

26.1%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	10%	30%

Excelsior - NAC Breda Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Breda will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Excelsior: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. van Gassel S. (G) 2. Bronkhorst I. 4. Widell C. (C) 3. Meissen R. 17. Martens N. 23. Yegoian I. 20. Hartjes L. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 10. Naujoks N. 11. de Regt G. 33. Bergraaf J.	99. Bielica D. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 25. Valerius C. 3. Odoi D. 22. Hillen R. 4. Kemper B. (C) 10. Nassoh M. 16. Balard M. 14. Sowah K. 7. Brym C. 17. van Hooijdonk S.
Substitutes
6. Carlen A. 34. El Hamdaoui N. 5. Henderikx S. 40. Holla T. (G) 15. Janssen S. 22. Mitrovic S. 14. Schouten L. 29. van Duinen M. 9. Wlodarczyk S. 7. Yoon D. 12. Zagre A.	27. Erat J. 55. Ghalidi B. 5. Kongolo T. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 8. Leemans C. 11. Paula R. 26. Reulen P. 9. Soumano M. 6. Staring C. 32. Talvitie J. 23. Versluis D.
Coaches
den Uil R.	Hoefkens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Widell C. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Naujoks N. (Pen),
45', Hillen R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Hartjes L. ↓, Carlen A. ↑,
60', van Hooijdonk S. ↓, Soumano M. ↑,
60', Lucassen B. ↓, Talvitie J. ↑,
60', Brym C. ↓, Paula R. ↑,
65', Yegoian I. 🟨,
74', Bergraaf J. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
74', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Mitrovic S. ↑,
74', Martens N. ↓, Zagre A. ↑,
81', Zagre A. 🟨,
84', Meissen R. 🟨,
89', Sowah K. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,
90+2', Odoi D. ↓, Versluis D. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 and 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Recently, Excelsior has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Excelsior: Nadje C. (Inactive) Tielemans M. (Inactive) Yoon D. (Inactive) Zagre A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Breda: Candelaria J. (Inactive) Greiml L. (Inactive) Mahmutovic E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Excelsior: Martens N. (Injury) Widell C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Breda: Jensen F. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:32. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.9:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
22.11.25	Ajax - Excelsior	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Excelsior - Heracles Almelo	1:2 ✺
01.11.25	Telstar - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
29.10.25	Excelsior Maassluis - Excelsior	1:0 ET ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
26.10.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Excelsior	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLTLL
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
22.11.25	NAC Breda - PSV Eindhoven	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Volendam - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	NAC Breda - Go Ahead Eagles	1:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
29.10.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	1:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
24.10.25	Heerenveen - NAC Breda	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
12.07.25	NAC Breda - Excelsior	0:1
20.07.24	NAC Breda - Excelsior	1:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
02.06.24	Excelsior - NAC Breda	4:1
28.05.24	NAC Breda - Excelsior	6:2
Club Friendly
22.07.23	NAC Breda - Excelsior	2:0
09.07.22	NAC Breda - Excelsior	1:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
06.05.22	Excelsior - NAC Breda	2:2

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