Match Info

Date: 18 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Nacional		Trofense

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	3.8
	1.78	3.4	3.8
	2	3.35	3.4
	1.85	3.6	3.85
	1.92	3.64	4.18
	1.85	3.25	3.75
	1.85	3.5	3.82
	1.86	3.65	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.11)	3.5 ↑ (3)	3.81 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
49.5%

Draw
26.4%

Trofense
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

30.1%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

29.3%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional's performance.

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Nacional - Trofense Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Trofense will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 13 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Recent matches Nacional is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Trofense has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Nacional will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
11.09.22	Covilhã - Nacional	1:2 ✺
04.09.22	Nacional - BSAD	1:3 ✺
28.08.22	Leixões - Nacional	3:0 ✺
21.08.22	Nacional - Mafra	0:2 ✺
13.08.22	Torreense - Nacional	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLLW
- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 2
11.09.22	Trofense - Moreirense	0:3 ✺
04.09.22	Penafiel - Trofense	3:0 ✺
28.08.22	Oliveirense - Trofense	1:1 ✺
20.08.22	Trofense - Vilafranquense	1:3 ✺
15.08.22	Leixões - Trofense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
27.02.22	Nacional - Trofense	1:1
04.10.21	Trofense - Nacional	0:3

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