Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 2 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Alveal F. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV


	Nacional Asuncion		Argentinos Juniors

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.25
	3.3	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.4	3.05	2.31
	3.36	3.05	2.28
	3.1	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.32	3.22	2.21	Watch
	3.3	3.05	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.82)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	2.25 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
28.3%

Draw
30.2%

Argentinos Juniors
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

29.6%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

29.8%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Argentinos Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Argentinos Juniors than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Nacional Asuncion - Argentinos Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Argentinos Juniors will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Argentinos Juniors: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva A. (G) 14. Nunez C. (C) 17. Blasi B. 5. Ojeda S. 25. Rivas L. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 6. Alfaro J. 7. Orzusa E. 24. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 8. Velazco F. 10. Caballero Fleytas T. I.	50. Rodriguez D. (G) 16. Alvarez F. 18. Meza F. 19. Galvan J. 6. Vega R. 22. Lescano A. 17. Moyano F. 21. Oroz N. 10. Veron G. 9. Romero M. 32. Gondou L.
Substitutes
4. Alfaro J. L. 38. Arevalo R. 21. Blas Caceres 11. Caballero G. 2. Gimenez M. 28. Gonzalez A. 16. Gonzalez M. 13. Meza L. 32. Morel F. 37. Nunez J. 35. Peralta F. (G) 29. Vargas S.	1. Acosta M. (G) 11. Batallini D. 5. Cardozo J. 24. Chaves M. 36. Gamarra A. 26. Herrera J. 13. Palacio T. 28. Perello M. 20. Prieto S. 8. Rodriguez A. 23. Santamaria T. 12. Siri Payer G. (G)
Coaches
Pumpido J. P.	Guede P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
12', Meza F. 🟨,
15', Alfaro J. L. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Romero M. ⚽,
41', 0 - 2, Lescano A. ⚽, Oroz N. (A),
45+2', 0 - 3, Romero M. ⚽, Gondou L. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Romero M. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
46', Oroz N. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
46', Orzusa E. ↓, Meza L. ↑,
46', Santacruz Rodas J. F. ↓, Blas Caceres ↑,
46', Velazco F. ↓, Caballero G. ↑,
60', Caballero Fleytas T. I. ↓, Arevalo R. ↑,
65', Blasi B. ↓, Alfaro J. L. ↑,
67', Gondou L. ↓, Batallini D. ↑,
72', Meza L. 🟨,
77', 1 - 3, Rivas L. ⚽, Arevalo R. (A),
89', 2 - 3, Arevalo R. ⚽, Gaona Lugo O. (A),

Preview

Nacional Asuncion is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Argentinos Juniors in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Argentinos Juniors could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Argentinos Juniors will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
30.03.24	Cerro Porteño - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
17.03.24	Nacional Asuncion - Tacuary	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.03.24	Palestino - Nacional Asuncion	2:3 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
08.03.24	Sol de América - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.03.24	Nacional Asuncion - Palestino	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWLL
- Argentinos Juniors
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
28.03.24	Instituto Córdoba - Argentinos Juniors	1:2 ✺
19.03.24	Argentinos Juniors - Rosario Central	3:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
15.03.24	Argentinos Juniors - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
10.03.24	Huracán Buenos Aires - Argentinos Juniors	1:1 ✺
06.03.24	Argentinos Juniors - Gimnasia La Plata	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWTW

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