The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Nacional Asuncion 37.3%
Draw 30.8%
Cerro Porteño 31.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
27%
29.4%
43.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26.5%
28.9%
44.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Asuncion's performance.
Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cerro Porteño might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-10.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional Asuncion that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+12.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cerro Porteño could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
66.7%
33.3%
Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteño Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
30. Rojas S. (C) 21. Feliu J. 3. Canete Torres A. D. 4. Gutierrez T. 14. Diaz F. 28. Samudio A. 17. Santacruz J. 13. Meza L. 27. Prieto R. 18. Valdez I. 7. Bailone I.
1. Martin A. (G) 39. Servin L. J. 6. Luciatti A. 22. Perez M. 35. Chaparro M. 26. Piris R. (C) 10. Dominguez C. 32. Bobadilla C. 5. Morel J. 40. Klimowicz M. 19. Vegetti P.
Substitutes
10. Arrua C. 5. Benitez G. 9. Benitez H. A. 31. Cabrera M. 15. Caceres L. 22. Colman Escobar D. J. 26. Coronel M. 23. Espinola C. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 24. Santa C. R. 6. Torales S. 29. Vargas S.
13. Benitez A. G. 25. Fernandez R. (G) 28. Franco C. 33. Gomez R. 18. Melgarejo R. 24. Paez E. 8. Paredes C. 16. Peralta F. 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 27. Torres J. 23. Velazquez G. 20. Viera W.
Coaches
Gimenez F.
Holan A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Luciatti A. 🟨,
25', Bobadilla C. 🟨,
45+4', Diaz F. ↓, Vargas S. ↑,
45+7', Valdez I. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Luciatti A. ↓, Velazquez G. ↑,
46', Santacruz J. ↓, Colman Escobar D. J. ↑,
46', Bobadilla C. ↓, Paez E. ↑,
50', Meza L. 🟥,
55', Samudio A. ↓, Torales S. ↑,
56', Servin L. J. ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
59', Morel J. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
64', Canete Torres A. D. 🟨,
78', Klimowicz M. ↓, Franco C. ↑,
81', Bailone I. ↓, Santa C. R. ↑,
81', Prieto R. ↓, Espinola C. ↑,
89', Rojas S. 🟨,
90+7', Perez M. 🟨,
Preview
One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 and 2).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
Recent performances by Nacional have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Cerro Porteño is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Nacional has had a series of away games.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:33. (average 1:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:19. (average 1.1:2.1).
Argentina
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Rojas S. (C) 
Gutierrez T. 
Bailone I. 
Klimowicz M. 
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