Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 28 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: Ramirez M. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Nacional Montevideo		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.4	2.88	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.55
	2.4	3.4	2.85	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.88
	2.5	3.42	2.79
	2.75	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.45	3.39	2.87	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.44)	3.34 ↑ (3.29)	2.77 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
37.6%

Draw
28.3%

Atlético Nacional
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

28.8%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

29.6%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Nacional Montevideo - Atlético Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Atlético Nacional (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Nacional (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mejia L. (C) 19. Morales L. 15. Calione P. 29. Millan J. 80. Otero R. 16. Villalba Jaume L. M. 6. Boggio L. 8. Oliva C. 17. Eduardo Vargas 7. Lopez N. 11. Baez Corradi G.	1. Ospina D. (C) 6. Roman A. 23. Arias J. J. 16. Tesillo W. 13. Candido C. 21. Campuzano J. 80. Zapata J. 18. Hinestroza M. 27. Asprilla D. 11. Arce B. 19. Viveros K.
Substitutes
31. Amaro J. 13. Ancheta E. 26. Arady B. 14. Dos Santos A. 32. Mederos R. 24. Mereles E. 10. Pereyra M. 9. Petit G. 2. Ramos N. 77. Rodriguez N. 27. Romero D. 25. Suarez I. (G)	3. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 33. Caicedo R. 15. Castillo H. (G) 20. Castro J. 7. Gil Mosquera F. A. 25. Marquinez L. (G) 9. Morelos A. 30. Parra Atehortua K. 35. Rosa J. 17. Salazar A. 29. Sarmiento A. 31. Torres Patino J. P. 5. Toscano Bassa K. D.
Coaches
Peirano P.	Gandolfi J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Baez Corradi G. 🟨,
31', Calione P. 🟨,
43', Morales L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Arias J. J. 🟨,
66', Otero R. ↓, Mereles E. ↑,
67', Eduardo Vargas ↓, Petit G. ↑,
74', Morales L. ↓, Ancheta E. ↑,
77', Viveros K. 🟨,
77', Arce B. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
82', Zapata J. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
82', Hinestroza M. ↓, Morelos A. ↑,
88', 1 - 0, Oliva C. ⚽, Ancheta E. (A),
90', Boggio L. ↓, Arady B. ↑,

Preview

Atlético Nacional is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Nacional is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Atlético Nacional has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Nacional: Mereles E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Nacional: Coates S. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	1:0 ✺
18.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Internacional RS	0:2 ✺
07.05.25	Bahia - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWLWW
- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
25.05.25	Atlético Nacional - Junior Barranquilla	2:3 ✺
18.05.25	Rionegro Águilas - Atlético Nacional	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	Atlético Nacional - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
11.05.25	Atlético Nacional - Llaneros SA	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.25	Atlético Nacional - Internacional RS	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Nacional Montevideo	3:0
12.05.21	Atlético Nacional - Nacional Montevideo	0:0
28.04.21	Nacional Montevideo - Atlético Nacional	4:4
18.03.14	Nacional Montevideo - Atlético Nacional	0:1
11.03.14	Atlético Nacional - Nacional Montevideo	2:2

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