Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 15 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 3 North
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+, Fox Sports 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Nacional Montevideo		Internacional RS

	1	X	2
	2.88	3	2.7	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.55
	2.85	3	2.65	Watch
	2.94	3.12	2.65
	2.9	3.04	2.66	Watch
	2.8	3	2.5	Watch
	2.95	3.08	2.65	Watch
	2.85	3	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.57)	3.04 ↑ (3.01)	2.63 ↓ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
33%

Draw
31.1%

Internacional RS
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Internacional RS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Internacional RS than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Nacional Montevideo - Internacional RS Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Internacional will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Internacional (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Nacional (1.93) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Internacional (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mejia L. (G) 19. Morales L. 4. Coates S. (C) 29. Millan J. 11. Baez Corradi G. 8. Oliva C. 6. Boggio L. 16. Villalba Jaume L. M. 10. Pereyra M. 27. Romero D. 7. Lopez N.	24. Anthoni (G) 35. Aguirre B. 4. Vitao 41. Victor Gabriel 26. Bernabei A. 8. Bruno Henrique 5. Fernando 29. Thiago Maia 10. Alan Patrick (C) 49. Ricardo Mathias 21. Wesley
Substitutes
13. Ancheta E. 26. Arady B. 15. Calione P. 17. Eduardo Vargas 76. Herazo D. 80. Otero R. 9. Petit G. 2. Ramos N. 18. Recoba J. 77. Rodriguez N. 5. Rodriguez Y. 25. Suarez I. (G)	17. Bruno Tabata 20. Clayton Sampaio 33. Diego Rosa 47. Gustavo Prado 12. Ivan (G) 18. Juninho 45. Lucca 23. Nathan 2. Ramon 3. Rogel A. 11. Romero O. 16. Ronaldo
Coaches
Peirano P.	Roger Machado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Victor Gabriel 🟨,
38', Coates S. ↓, Calione P. ↑,
45', 0 - 1, Ricardo Mathias ⚽, Aguirre B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Romero D. ↓, Recoba J. ↑,
46', Pereyra M. ↓, Petit G. ↑,
52', Thiago Maia ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
62', Bruno Henrique ↓, Gustavo Prado ↑,
63', Ricardo Mathias ↓, Bruno Tabata ↑,
63', Victor Gabriel ↓, Juninho ↑,
69', Baez Corradi G. ↓, Herazo D. ↑,
74', Wesley ↓, Lucca ↑,
75', Boggio L. ↓, Otero R. ↑,
90+4', Calione P. 🟨,
90+7', 0 - 2, Aguirre B. ⚽, Alan Patrick (A),

Preview

Nacional is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Internacional has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Nacional: Carneiro G. (Knee Injury) Mereles E. (Injury)

There will not play in Internacional: Borre R. (Injury) Bruno Gomes (Knee Injury) Carbonero J. (Injury) Drummond L. (Knee Injury) Mercado G. (Knee Injury) Rochet S. (Broken Hand) Valencia E. (Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)

There are questionable in Nacional: Morales L. (Injury) Oliva C. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
07.05.25	Bahia - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	4:0 ✺
26.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Internacional RS - Nacional Montevideo	3:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.25	Miramar Misiones - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.5 WWWTW
- Internacional RS
Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Botafogo RJ - Internacional RS	4:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.25	Atlético Nacional - Internacional RS	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Corinthians - Internacional RS	4:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	Internacional RS - Maracanã	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Internacional RS - Juventude	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Internacional RS - Nacional Montevideo	3:3
07.06.23	Nacional Montevideo - Internacional RS	1:1
03.05.23	Internacional RS - Nacional Montevideo	2:2

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