Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Nacional Montevideo		Cerro

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.1	7.5	Watch
	1.37	4.75	6.75
	1.34	4.65	7.7
	1.43	4.55	8.78
	1.33	5.16	8.3	Watch
	1.36	4.33	8
	1.37	4.58	8.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.36)	4.59 ↑ (4.5)	7.92 ↓ (7.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
68.1%

Draw
20.2%

Cerro
11.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.9%

20.5%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.2%

19.5%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mejia L. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 4. Coates S. 32. Viera T. 21. Candido C. 23. Rodriguez L. 10. dos Santos A. 30. Barcia B. 11. Silvera M. 19. De Los Santos J. 9. Gomez M.	25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 5. Macelli A. 3. Lima A. 17. Rodriguez G. 22. Suarez D. 8. Miranda A. 31. Amaro J. 6. Bregante F. 10. Aleman B. 77. Ocampo M. 11. Soria N.
Substitutes
6. Boggio L. 15. Calione P. 20. Carneiro G. 56. Garcia Lantean J. I. 14. Lodeiro N. 31. Martinez R. 18. Nunez P. 77. Rodriguez N. 25. Suarez I. (G) 27. Veron T.	4. Arguello M. 27. Barros C. 28. Cambon A. 41. Cristoforo S. 23. Farias M. 12. Irrazabal Y. (G) 35. Nongoy P. 29. Paiva S. 7. Severo A. 19. Sosa E.
Coaches
Bava J.	Apud A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', Ocampo M. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Gomez M. ⚽,
28', 2 - 0, Gomez M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Soria N. ↓, Barros C. ↑,
53', Aleman B. 🟨,
54', Amaro J. ↓, Cristoforo S. ↑,
61', 3 - 0, Gomez M. (Penalty Awarded),
62', Aleman B. ↓, Cambon A. ↑,
62', Suarez D. ↓, Arguello M. ↑,
67', Coates S. 🟨,
71', Silvera M. ↓, Carneiro G. ↑,
76', Macelli A. 🟨,
78', De Los Santos J. ↓, Veron T. ↑,
78', Barcia B. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
80', Ocampo M. ↓, Paiva S. ↑,
87', Gomez M. ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
87', Rodriguez L. ↓, Garcia Lantean J. I. ↑,
87', 4 - 0, Nunez P. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3.

Nacional is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cerro has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cerro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Nacional has had a series of away games.

In this match, Nacional is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 35:18. (average 1.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:5. (average 2.9:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.36 are the expected chance of winning is 67.87%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Albion Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLLW
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.05.26	Cerro - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Central Español - Cerro	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	Cerro - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Cerro Largo - Cerro	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
01.11.25	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	0:0
03.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	4:0
02.11.24	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	2:0
09.06.24	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	3:0
28.04.24	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	1:2
15.10.23	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	2:1
03.06.23	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	1:1

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