Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 6

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nacional Montevideo		Montevideo Wanderers

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.90	5.50	Watch
	1.57	3.80	5.25
	1.57	3.80	5.40
	1.60	4.19	5.78
	1.6	4.04	5.19	Watch
	1.57	4.10	5.45
	1.59	3.99	5.29	Watch
	1.59	3.90	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.58)	3.97 ↑ (3.89)	5.38 ↑ (5.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
59.1%

Draw
23.6%

Montevideo Wanderers
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

23.8%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

23%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Montevideo Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo Wanderers than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Martin A. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 4. Coates S. (C) 5. Calvo F. 21. Candido C. 36. Zuculini B. 6. Boggio L. 14. Lodeiro N. 30. Barcia B. 11. Silvera M. 9. Gomez M.	33. Buffa A. (G) 6. Zazpe L. 13. Formiliano F. (C) 21. Benitez S. 2. Cabral N. 5. Queiroz N. 10. Cosentino L. 31. Furtado N. 16. Alberti J. 24. Zeballos J. 30. Labandeira F.
Substitutes
15. Calione P. 29. Correa T. 10. Dos Santos A. 31. Martinez R. 1. Mejia L. (G) 24. Nunez B. 18. Nunez P. 23. Rodriguez L. 27. Veron T. 32. Viera T.	14. Acosta M. 27. Blengio L. 29. Crucci E. 25. Freitas G. 17. Garcia A. 1. Govea G. (G) 20. Guzman S. 11. Luna J. 22. Porro E. 80. Urretaviscaya J.
Coaches
Bava J.	Corujo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', Zuculini B. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Cosentino L. ⚽,
38', Formiliano F. 🟨,
45', Queiroz N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lodeiro N. ↓, Dos Santos A. ↑,
53', Martin A. 🟥,
56', Ancheta E. ↓, Mejia L. ↑,
58', Labandeira F. ↓, Luna J. ↑,
58', Zazpe L. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
59', Coates S. 🟨,
70', Silvera M. ↓, Correa T. ↑,
75', Queiroz N. ↓, Freitas G. ↑,
75', Cabral N. ↓, Urretaviscaya J. ↑,
80', Zuculini B. ↓, Veron T. ↑,
80', Calvo F. ↓, Viera T. ↑,
85', Cosentino L. ↓, Guzman S. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 2, Zeballos J. ⚽,
90+2', 1 - 2, Boggio L. ⚽,
90+4', Garcia A. 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 4.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, Nacional is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 15 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 41:15. (average 2.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 24:8. (average 2.2:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17
6	Wanderers	9	4	3	2	12:11	1	15

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 58.44%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.07.26	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
06.06.26	Nacional Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
31.05.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Coquimbo Unido	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWLWW
- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.07.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	2:0 ✺
05.06.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	0:0 ✺
31.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Montevideo Wanderers	2:5 ✺
24.05.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
17.05.26	Albion Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
13.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0
26.10.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	0:0
26.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1
15.09.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	0:2
02.03.24	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0
26.11.23	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1
24.04.23	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	0:1

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