Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 3

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Referee: De Armas M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Plaza Colonia		Cerro

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.2	3	3.1
	2.2	3	3.25	Watch
	2.21	3.13	3.75
	23.91	7.66	1.11	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.3
	2.22	3.08	3.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.31 ↑ (2.5)	3.7 ↑ (3)	3.06 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plaza Colonia
24%

Draw
34.4%

Cerro
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

30.8%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

30.2%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Plaza Colonia's form might have worsened.

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cerro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Plaza Colonia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

Plaza Colonia - Cerro Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Plaza Colonia will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Plaza Colonia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Silva J. (G) 20. Redin E. 18. Cayetano A. 4. Ruiz Diaz H. 17. Otegui S. 6. Redin M. 23. Piriz F. (C) 3. Calleros Y. 80. Carrizo L. 27. Barros C. 7. Lopez A.	25. Bacchia R. (G) 4. Suarez M. 2. Salaberry H. 28. Fuica N. 7. Macelli A. (C) 32. Caceres S. 6. Frugone A. 14. Sosa E. 29. Paiva S. 9. Larrosa E. 207. Ocampo M.
Substitutes
9. Alex Bruno 11. Bueno G. 13. Garcia J. 21. Hernandez J. P. 10. Ocampo A. 22. Ramos J. 44. Reyes G. (G) 16. Velazquez M. 14. Vergara H. 8. Villalba D.	22. Acosta F. 27. Camacho S. 15. Cuello E. 11. Falconis O. 23. Farias M. 8. Miranda A. 17. Neira I. 30. Nichele M. 33. Rodriguez F. (G) 19. Techera F.
Coaches
Diaz S.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Macelli A. ⚽,
25', Suarez M. 🟨,
27', 0 - 2, Caceres S. ⚽,
39', Otegui S. 🟨,
41', Sosa E. ↓, Neira I. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Redin E. ↓, Ramos J. ↑,
46', Barros C. ↓, Vergara H. ↑,
70', Ruiz Diaz H. 🟨,
71', Neira I. 🟨,
72', Piriz F. ↓, Ocampo A. ↑,
75', Suarez M. 🟨,
77', Redin M. 🟨,
79', Ocampo M. ↓, Farias M. ↑,
79', Caceres S. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
85', Redin M. ↓, Hernandez J. P. ↑,
85', Otegui S. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
87', Paiva S. ↓, Cuello E. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 1.

Plaza Colonia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cerro is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Plaza Colonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Plaza Colonia has had a series of away games.

Plaza Colonia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Plaza Colonia won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.4:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Plaza Colonia - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.02%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Cerro - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 32.13%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.08.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Plaza Colonia	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
07.08.25	Wanderers Durazno - Plaza Colonia	2:3 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.08.25	Plaza Colonia - Miramar Misiones	1:3 ✺
28.06.25	Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
23.06.25	Cerro Largo - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWLTW
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.08.25	Cerro - Racing Montevideo	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro	0:0 ✺
28.06.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	2:0 ✺
22.06.25	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	2:1 ✺
19.06.25	Cerro - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
13.06.25	Plaza Colonia - Cerro	2:2
14.02.25	Cerro - Plaza Colonia	0:1
04.12.23	Cerro - Plaza Colonia	1:1
24.07.23	Cerro - Plaza Colonia	0:0
08.05.23	Plaza Colonia - Cerro	1:1
04.02.21	Plaza Colonia - Cerro	2:1
12.11.20	Plaza Colonia - Cerro	3:0

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