Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte (Potosí)

Referee: Batista E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Colombia	ESPN 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Nacional Potosí		Independiente

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3.1
	2.15	3.3	3.3	Watch
	2.22	3.34	3.33	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.19	3.38	3.24	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.89)	3.3 ↑ (3.27)	3.25 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS Xtra En Español

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Potosí
42.8%

Draw
28.4%

Independiente
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

28.6%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

29%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Potosí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Potosí's performance.

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Potosí than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional Potosí that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

Nacional Potosí - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Nacional Potosí will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Independiente will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional Potosí: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mustafa S. (G) 21. Baldomar O. 30. Johan Bocanegra 26. Echeverria S. 7. Torres S. 11. Rojas J. 6. Restrepo E. 22. Hoyos D. 16. Torrico A. 19. Abrego V. 20. Prost M.	33. Rey R. (G) 5. Loyola F. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 77. Angulo A. 20. Rodrigo Fernandez 23. Marcone I. 10. Cabral L. 16. Hidalgo S. 18. Maestro I. 7. Montiel S.
Substitutes
3. Acuna M. 29. Alvarez W. 18. Azogue P. 33. Demiquel L. 24. Diellos D. 23. Galindo P. (G) 27. Garcia A. 17. Guerra S. 28. Palacio D. 8. Pavia L. 10. Preciado C. 4. Roca C.	9. Avalos G. 1. Blazquez J. (G) 8. Galdames P. 34. Gimenez M. 11. Mancuello F. 21. Martinez D. 14. Millan L. 32. Paredes F. 19. Roman P. 3. Sporle A. 27. Tarzia D. 4. Vera F.
Coaches
Vigevani C.	Vaccari J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Hidalgo S. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
41', Rojas J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Johan Bocanegra ↓, Palacio D. ↑,
60', Maestro I. ↓, Avalos G. ↑,
60', Cabral L. ↓, Mancuello F. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Abrego V. ⚽, Restrepo E. (A),
68', Hoyos D. ↓, Azogue P. ↑,
76', Abrego V. ↓, Guerra S. ↑,
78', Baldomar O. 🟨,
79', Prost M. ↓, Diellos D. ↑,
79', Marcone I. ↓, Tarzia D. ↑,
80', Rojas J. ↓, Pavia L. ↑,
84', 2 - 0, Diellos D. ⚽, Palacio D. (A),
90', Pavia L. 🟨,
90+1', Angulo A. 🟨,
90+1', Valdez S. 🟨,
90+1', Mustafa S. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Nacional Potosí is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Independiente is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Independiente could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Nacional Potosí will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Potosí
Bolivian Division Profesional
28.03.25	Nacional Potosí - Always Ready	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
23.03.25	Nacional Potosí - Real Tomayapo	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.25	Universitario de Vinto - Nacional Potosí	0:1 ✺
Bolivian Torneo Amistoso de Verano
28.02.25	Universitario de Vinto - Nacional Potosí	3:0 ✺
25.02.25	Nacional Potosí - Universitario de Vinto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTWLW
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.03.25	Independiente - Godoy Cruz	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
21.03.25	Independiente - Colegiales	3:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.03.25	Independiente - Racing	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	San Lorenzo - Independiente	1:2 ✺
04.03.25	Banfield - Independiente	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWTWT

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