Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Pedro Bidegain (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Dovalo P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	HBO Max, TNT Sports
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	San Lorenzo		Independiente

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.65	2.7
	2.87	2.8	2.7
	3.15	2.58	2.78	Watch
	3.26	2.66	2.88
	3.31	2.66	2.67	Watch
	2.9	2.63	2.63
	3.2	2.59	2.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (3.04)	2.65 ↓ (2.84)	2.72 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Lorenzo
30.1%

Draw
35.4%

Independiente
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

33.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

The ML Model estimate for Independiente aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	62.5%	37.5%

San Lorenzo - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Devecchi J. (G) 32. Herrera E. 4. Romana J. 55. Montenegro L. 24. Tripichio N. (C) 11. Reali M. 8. Insaurralde M. 10. Gulli F. 6. De Ritis M. 29. Auzmendi R. 9. Cuello A.	33. Rey R. (C) 4. Arias S. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 3. Valenzuela M. 16. Perez Curci M. 23. Marcone I. 28. Gutierrez M. 7. Montiel S. 19. Abaldo M. 9. Avalos G.
Substitutes
26. Abrego G. 20. Altamirano F. (G) 28. Barrios N. 16. Corujo G. 18. Herazo D. 44. Hernandez M. 14. Ladstatter A. 34. Lopez F. 5. Perruzzi I. 13. Rattalino J. 17. Rodriguez G. 3. Rodriguez Pagano T.	1. Blazquez J. (G) 10. Cabral L. 39. De Irastorza J. 13. Fedorco J. 6. Freire N. 29. Godoy L. 40. Malcorra I. 11. Mancuello F. 8. Millan L. 5. Rodrigo Fernandez 34. Tempone F. 43. Valdez F.
Coaches
Alvarez G.	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Abaldo M. ⚽, Gutierrez M. (A),
20', Cuello A. 🟨,
39', Insaurralde M. 🟨,
41', Lomonaco K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gulli F. ↓, Barrios N. ↑,
46', De Ritis M. ↓, Rattalino J. ↑,
54', 0 - 2, Gutierrez M. ⚽, Abaldo M. (A),
65', Marcone I. ↓, Rodrigo Fernandez ↑,
65', Montiel S. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Herrera E. ⚽,
80', Reali M. ↓, Ladstatter A. ↑,
80', Gutierrez M. ↓, Fedorco J. ↑,
80', Lomonaco K. ↓, Freire N. ↑,
81', Insaurralde M. ↓, Herazo D. ↑,
89', Avalos G. ↓, Tempone F. ↑,
90', Valdez S. 🟨,
90+3', Cuello A. 🟨,

Preview

Federation decision.

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Lorenzo won 0.

San Lorenzo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Independiente is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Independiente may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, San Lorenzo has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in San Lorenzo: Arias N. (Knee Injury) Cardillo M. (Inactive) Cerutti E. (Knee Injury) Cordoba A. (Muscle Injury) Hernandez G. (Knee Injury) Herrera D. (Knee Injury) Perruzzi F. (Inactive) Vietto L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Independiente: Malcorra I. (Inactive) Zabala F. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, San Lorenzo won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 0.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, San Lorenzo won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.9:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 35.65%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Lorenzo
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	San Lorenzo - Santos	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.26	Platense - San Lorenzo	0:1 ✺
20.04.26	San Lorenzo - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	San Lorenzo - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.04.26	Newells Old Boys - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWTWT
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Independiente	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Independiente - Defensa y Justicia	3:1 ✺
11.04.26	Boca Juniors - Independiente	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Independiente - Racing	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.03.26	Independiente - Atenas Río Cuarto	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.09.25	Independiente - San Lorenzo	1:1
08.03.25	San Lorenzo - Independiente	1:2
03.08.24	Independiente - San Lorenzo	0:0
01.04.23	San Lorenzo - Independiente	0:0
04.06.22	San Lorenzo - Independiente	1:1
Torneos De Verano
15.01.22	Independiente - San Lorenzo	0:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.12.21	Independiente - San Lorenzo	1:1

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