Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA A4 - ROUND 13

Date: 20 March 2024, Wednesday


	Nacional SP		America SP

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.35	4
	1.93	3.05	3.78
	1.81	3.32	4.12
	1.7	3.35	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.75)	3.27 ↓ (3.4)	3.98 ↓ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional SP
50.1%

Draw
27.4%

America SP
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

26.8%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

25.2%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

America SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional SP than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional SP, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for America SP than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 3)
8', 1 - 0, Vitinho H. ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, Paolo ⚽,
28', 3 - 0, Nicollas (Pen),
32', 4 - 0, Paolo ⚽,
34', 4 - 1, Souza V. ⚽,
39', 4 - 2, Juan ⚽,
44', 4 - 3, Souza V. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+4', 5 - 3, Talisca ⚽,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Recent matches Nacional SP is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

America SP has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Nacional SP could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Nacional SP is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
16.03.24	Nacional SP - Grêmio Osasco Audax	0:0 ✺
10.03.24	Francana - Nacional SP	2:0 ✺
06.03.24	Nacional SP - Grêmio Desportivo São-Carlense	1:0 ✺
02.03.24	Rio Branco de Americana - Nacional SP	1:1 ✺
28.02.24	Nacional SP - Taquaritinga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TLWTT
- America SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
17.03.24	XV de Jaú - America SP	3:1 ✺
09.03.24	America SP - SKA Brasil	0:2 ✺
06.03.24	Penapolense - America SP	2:0 ✺
02.03.24	America SP - VOCEM	0:1 ✺
28.02.24	Rio Branco de Americana - America SP	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Nacional SP - America SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide