Match Info

IRAQ: Stars League - Round 23

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Iraq	Almanasa


	Naft Al-Basra		Al-Talaba

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.95	2.15
	5.2	2.75	1.83
	5.38	2.88	1.81
	5.32	2.89	1.8	Watch
	5.16	2.94	1.77	Watch
	5.2	2.75	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.89 ↑ (3.11)	2.86 ↓ (3.05)	1.87 ↓ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naft Al-Basra
18.7%

Draw
32.1%

Al-Talaba
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

29.8%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

27%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naft Al-Basra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Naft Al-Basra's form might have worsened.

Al-Talaba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Talaba's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naft Al-Basra than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Naft Al-Basra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Talaba than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Al-Talaba, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Naft Al Basra - Al Talaba Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Msuva S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+1', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Naft Al-Basra won 2.

Recent matches Naft Al-Basra is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Al-Talaba is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Al-Talaba could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Naft Al-Basra have a series of home games.

Al-Talaba will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Naft Al-Basra won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:14 (average 1.9:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Naft Al-Basra won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naft Al-Basra
Iraqi Premier League
02.03.25	Naft Al-Basra - Karbala	0:0 ✺
18.02.25	Naft Al-Basra - Al-Naft	0:0 ✺
13.02.25	Al-Karkh - Naft Al-Basra	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Naft Al-Basra - Al-Hudood	3:1 ✺
29.01.25	Naft Al-Basra - Diyala	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TTLWW
- Al-Talaba
Iraqi Premier League
04.03.25	Al-Talaba - Al-Shorta Baghdad	0:2 ✺
Iraqi Cup
27.02.25	Al-Talaba - Amanat Baghdad	2:0 ET ✺
Iraqi Premier League
19.02.25	Zakho - Al-Talaba	2:1 ✺
14.02.25	Al-Talaba - Diyala	0:0 ✺
08.02.25	Naft Maysan - Al-Talaba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
25.11.24	Al-Talaba - Naft Al-Basra	0:1
10.02.24	Al-Talaba - Naft Al-Basra	2:3
25.06.23	Al-Talaba - Naft Al-Basra	2:1
31.10.21	Al-Talaba - Naft Al-Basra	3:2
24.02.21	Naft Al-Basra - Al-Talaba	1:1
23.10.19	Al-Talaba - Naft Al-Basra	4:4
25.06.19	Naft Al-Basra - Al-Talaba	1:2

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