Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 32

Date: 28 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball, QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagoya Grampus		Júbilo Iwata

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.5	4.33	Watch
	1.82	3.4	4.4
	1.83	3.36	4.15	Watch
	1.88	3.52	4.55
	1.95	3.46	4.05	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.2
	1.86	3.57	4.39	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.83)	3.45 ↓ (3.52)	4.28 ↓ (4.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
50.9%

Draw
27.2%

Júbilo Iwata
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

26.8%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

26.3%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Júbilo Iwata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	30%	0%

Nagoya Grampus - Júbilo Iwata Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Langerak M. (G) 34. Uchida T. 20. Mikuni K. 24. Kawazura A. 2. Nogami Y. 8. Shiihashi K. 15. Inagaki S. 55. Tokumoto S. 14. Morishima T. 7. Izumi R. 18. Nagai K.	1. Kawashima E. (G) 50. Uemura H. 32. Hilo H. 36. Ricardo Graca 4. Matsubara K. 14. Matsumoto M. 16. Leo Gomes 25. Nakamura S. 18. Takahata K. 11. Germain R. 55. Watanabe R.
Substitutes
3. Ha Chang-Rae 77. Junker K. 33. Kikuchi T. 27. Nakayama K. 10. Patric 16. Takeda Y. (G) 66. Yamanaka R.	23. Croux J. 13. Fujikawa K. 99. Matheus Peixoto 21. Miura R. (G) 26. Nishikubo S. 15. Suzuki K. 10. Yamada H.
Coaches
Hasegawa K.	Yokouchi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Shiihashi K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Shiihashi K. ↓, Patric ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Inagaki S. ⚽, Nagai K. (A),
62', Matsumoto M. ↓, Croux J. ↑,
66', Izumi R. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
68', Hilo H. 🟨,
77', Watanabe R. ↓, Yamada H. ↑,
77', Ricardo Graca ↓, Suzuki K. ↑,
77', Nakamura S. ↓, Nishikubo S. ↑,
80', Nagai K. ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,
82', Uemura H. ↓, Matheus Peixoto ↑,
90', Nakayama K. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 0, Morishima T. ⚽, Kikuchi T. (A),
90+7', Morishima T. ↓, Ha Chang-Rae ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 8 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nagoya won 3.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Nagoya could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Nagoya is a favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Nagoya won 10 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 23-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Nagoya won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
22.09.24	Nagoya Grampus - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
18.09.24	Nagoya Grampus - Albirex Niigata	3:0 ✺
14.09.24	Tokyo - Nagoya Grampus	4:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
08.09.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	1:3 penalties ✺
04.09.24	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WWLWL
- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J1 League
21.09.24	Júbilo Iwata - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0 ✺
14.09.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Júbilo Iwata	0:2 ✺
25.08.24	Júbilo Iwata - Consadole Sapporo	0:2 ✺
17.08.24	Machida Zelvia - Júbilo Iwata	4:0 ✺
11.08.24	Júbilo Iwata - Kashima Antlers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
13.04.24	Júbilo Iwata - Nagoya Grampus	0:1
19.08.22	Nagoya Grampus - Júbilo Iwata	1:0
28.04.22	Júbilo Iwata - Nagoya Grampus	2:1
30.11.19	Júbilo Iwata - Nagoya Grampus	2:1
20.04.19	Nagoya Grampus - Júbilo Iwata	1:0
01.09.18	Júbilo Iwata - Nagoya Grampus	1:6
03.03.18	Nagoya Grampus - Júbilo Iwata	1:0

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