Match Info

JAPAN: EMPERORS CUP - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 12 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)


	Nagoya Grampus		Vegalta Sendai

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	5.25
	1.53	3.8	4.8
	1.57	3.9	5
	1.54	4.26	5.97
	1.5	3.8	5.5
	1.53	4.15	5.55
	1.54	4.1	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.82)	4 ↑ (3.68)	5.35 ↑ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
59.9%

Draw
23%

Vegalta Sendai
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

25.2%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

24.8%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nagoya Grampus's performance.

Vegalta Sendai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vegalta Sendai might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nagoya Grampus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vegalta Sendai than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vegalta Sendai could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nagoya Grampus - Vegalta Sendai Predictions

Users Predictions: Nagoya Grampus will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Langerak M. (G) 13. Fujii H. 15. Inagaki S. 7. Izumi R. 18. Nagai K. 4. Nakatani S. 2. Nogami Y. 9. Sakai N. 19. Shigehiro T. 34. Uchida T. 35. Yamada R.	33. Hayashi A. (G) 2. Akiyama Y. 3. Fukumori N. 4. Hachisuka K. 32. Kamada H. 16. Kato C. 22. Koide Y. 9. Nakayama M. 27. Onaiwu G. 10. Ryang Yong-G. 14. Sagara R.
Substitutes
77. Junker K. 24. Kawazura A. 10. Mateus 17. Morishita R. 5. Nagasawa K. 21. Paula T. 16. Takeda Y. (G)	88. Heo Yong-Joon 29. Kudo A. 8. Matsushita Y. 45. Matsuzawa K. (G) 7. Nakajima M. 15. Sugata M. 28. Sugawara R.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nagoya won 1.

Nagoya is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sendai is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Sendai could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Nagoya have a series of home games.

In this match Nagoya is a favorite.

Last 21 head-to-head matches Nagoya won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 21-31.

Including matches at home between the teams Nagoya won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 10-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
08.07.23	Nagoya Grampus - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:2 ✺
01.07.23	Nagoya Grampus - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
24.06.23	Tokyo - Nagoya Grampus	2:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
18.06.23	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
11.06.23	Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TWLWW
- Vegalta Sendai
Japan J2 League
09.07.23	Tochigi - Vegalta Sendai	2:2 ✺
05.07.23	Vegalta Sendai - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:3 ✺
01.07.23	Montedio Yamagata - Vegalta Sendai	4:1 ✺
25.06.23	Vegalta Sendai - Tokushima Vortis	1:1 ✺
18.06.23	Renofa Yamaguchi - Vegalta Sendai	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
07.11.21	Vegalta Sendai - Nagoya Grampus	1:1
26.05.21	Nagoya Grampus - Vegalta Sendai	0:1
24.10.20	Nagoya Grampus - Vegalta Sendai	1:0
22.02.20	Vegalta Sendai - Nagoya Grampus	1:1
19.10.19	Nagoya Grampus - Vegalta Sendai	0:2
Japan J League Cup
26.06.19	Vegalta Sendai - Nagoya Grampus	1:0
19.06.19	Nagoya Grampus - Vegalta Sendai	2:0

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