Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade de la Beaujoire (Nantes)

Referee: Vernice M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Nantes		Rennes

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.55	3.45	2.08
	3.82	3.46	2.11
	4.12	3.32	1.92	Watch
	3.79	3.55	2.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.78 ↑ (2.78)	3.44 ↑ (3.37)	2.07 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Nantes
25.5%

Draw
28%

Rennes
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

28%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

28.8%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nantes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nantes's form might have worsened.

Rennes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rennes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nantes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rennes than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rennes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.9%	11.1%	63%

Nantes - Rennes Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Nantes will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%). Rennes will win (votes: 17 - 63%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rennes: 44.8% – 81.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rennes will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopes A. (G) 98. Amian K. (C) 6. Awaziem C. 15. Lahdo M. 3. Cozza N. 80. Mwanga J. 78. Tati T. 66. Leroux L. 8. Lepenant J. 10. Abline M. 31. Mostafa Mohamed	30. Samba B. (G) 36. Seidu A. 97. Jacquet J. 24. Rouault A. 45. Camara M. 10. Blas L. 21. Rongier V. (C) 8. Fofana S. 26. Merlin Q. 9. Lepaul E. 7. Embolo B.
Substitutes
90. Benhattab Y. 14. Camara A. 30. Carlgren P. (G) 13. Coquelin F. 19. El Arabi Y. 7. Hong Hyun-Seok 5. Kwon Hyeok-Kyu 26. Radakovic U. 17. Tabibou D.	3. Brassier L. 6. Cisse D. 33. Hateboer H. 4. Kamara G. 39. Meite M. 65. Mukiele N. 18. Nagida M. 50. Silistrie M. (G) 11. Tamari M.
Coaches
Castro L.	Beye H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', Tati T. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Blas L. (Pen),
35', 0 - 2, Lepaul E. ⚽, Seidu A. (A),
38', Mostafa Mohamed 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Rongier V. ↓, Cisse D. ↑,
46', Seidu A. ↓, Brassier L. ↑,
63', Cisse D. 🟨,
64', 1 - 2, Mwanga J. ⚽,
65', Embolo B. ↓, Tamari M. ↑,
66', Tati T. ↓, Coquelin F. ↑,
67', Mostafa Mohamed ↓, Benhattab Y. ↑,
69', Lahdo M. 🟨,
70', Blas L. ↓, Hateboer H. ↑,
77', Coquelin F. ↓, Tabibou D. ↑,
78', Lahdo M. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
81', Lepaul E. ↓, Meite M. ↑,
82', Cozza N. ↓, El Arabi Y. ↑,
90+1', Leroux L. ↓, Radakovic U. ↑,
90+1', Abline M. (Pen),
90+6', 2 - 2, El Arabi Y. ⚽, Abline M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 1.

Nantes is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rennes has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rennes will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Nantes: Acapandie M. (Injury) Centonze F. (Injury) Guirassy B. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Rennes: Ait Boudlal A. (Groin Injury) Frankowski P. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Rennes: Seidu A. (Head Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 14:30. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Nantes won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.6:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Rennes - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 38.01%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
13.09.25	Nice - Nantes	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Nantes - Auxerre	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Strasbourg - Nantes	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Nantes - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Nantes - Paris FC	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL
- Stade Rennes
French Ligue 1
14.09.25	Rennes - Lyon	3:1 ✺
31.08.25	Angers - Rennes	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Lorient - Rennes	4:0 ✺
15.08.25	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Rennes - Genoa	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
26.07.25	Nantes - Rennes	1:3
French Ligue 1
18.04.25	Rennes - Nantes	2:1
08.12.24	Nantes - Rennes	1:0
20.04.24	Nantes - Rennes	0:3
01.10.23	Rennes - Nantes	3:1
26.02.23	Nantes - Rennes	0:1
09.10.22	Rennes - Nantes	3:0

Upcoming Matches