Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Beaujoire (Nantes)

Referee: Millot B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, beIN Sports XTRA, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball, VIX App


	Nantes		Paris FC

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.59	3.24	2.79	Watch
	2.63	3	2.63
	2.72	3.27	2.92	Watch
	2.62	3.2	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (3.05)	3.19 ↑ (3.15)	2.79 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nantes
36.1%

Draw
29.8%

Paris FC
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

29.9%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

30.4%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nantes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nantes's performance.

Paris FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paris FC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
51.5%	21.2%	27.3%

Nantes - Paris FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Nantes will win (votes: 17 - 51.5%). Paris FC will win (votes: 9 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 21.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nantes: 34.4% – 68.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Nantes (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Paris FC (votes: 6 - 40%). Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Nantes (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Nantes (2.62) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Paris FC (1.96) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Nantes (votes: 8 - 38.1%). Paris FC (votes: 9 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopes A. (C) 98. Amian K. 78. Tati T. 80. Mwanga J. 3. Cozza N. 28. Sissoko I. 13. Coquelin F. 10. Abline M. 20. Cabella R. 27. Machado D. 19. El Arabi Y.	35. Trapp K. (G) 14. Traore H. 5. Mbow M. 6. Otavio 15. Kolodziejczak T. 19. Sangui N. 10. Kebbal I. 21. Lopez M. (C) 17. Camara A. 7. Gory A. 11. Krasso J.
Substitutes
14. Camara A. 30. Carlgren P. (G) 52. Deuff B. 72. Doucoure S. 37. Ganago I. 11. Guirassy B. 49. Kone J. 8. Lepenant J. 26. Radakovic U.	13. Cafaro M. 28. De Smet T. 8. Doucet L. 24. Koleosho L. 20. Lopez J. 4. Marchetti V. 18. Munetsi M. 16. Nkambadio O. (G) 2. Ollila T.
Coaches
Kantari A.	Gilli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Kebbal I. ⚽,
18', Machado D. ↓, Lepenant J. ↑,
21', Gilli S. 🟨,
23', Tati T. 🟨,
29', Kebbal I. 🟨,
35', Lopez M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 1 - 1, Abline M. ⚽, Mwanga J. (A),
60', Kolodziejczak T. 🟨,
65', El Arabi Y. ↓, Ganago I. ↑,
65', Coquelin F. ↓, Guirassy B. ↑,
67', Gory A. ↓, Koleosho L. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Koleosho L. ⚽, Traore H. (A),
81', Otavio ↓, Marchetti V. ↑,
82', Sissoko I. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
87', Kebbal I. ↓, Munetsi M. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 15).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Paris FC has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Nantes: Awaziem C. (International duty) Centonze F. (Injury) Mostafa Mohamed (International duty)

There will not play in Paris FC: Alakouch S. (Injury) Chergui S. (Injury) Lees-Melou P. (Shin Injury) Simon M. (International duty)

There are questionable in Paris FC: De Smet T. (Inactive) Dicko N. (Inactive) Geubbels W. (Muscle Injury) Gory A. (Injury) Hamel P. (Calf Injury) Munetsi M. (Calf Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nantes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:3. (average 5:1.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Paris FC: 1.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8:3	5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Nantes
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Nantes - Nice	1:2 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Olympique Marseille - Nantes	0:2 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.25	Concarneau - Nantes	3:5 ✺
French Ligue 1
12.12.25	Angers - Nantes	4:1 ✺
06.12.25	Nantes - Lens	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 LWWLL
- Paris FC
Coupe De France
12.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Paris FC	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Raon LEtape - Paris FC	0:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
13.12.25	Paris FC - Toulouse	0:3 ✺
07.12.25	Le Havre - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.8 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
24.10.25	Paris FC - Nantes	1:2
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Nantes - Paris FC	2:3
French Coupe de la Ligue
30.10.19	Nantes - Paris FC	8:0

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