Match Info

CHINA: Super League - Round 15

Date: 14 June 2024, Friday

Location: Rugao Olympic Sports Center (Rugao)


	Nantong Zhiyun		Shenzhen Peng City

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	2.2	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.2
	3.1	3.2	2.3	Watch
	3.4	3.24	2.24
	3.39	3.24	2.24
	2.88	3.2	2.3
	2.95	3.29	2.47	Watch
	3.1	3.15	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.37)	3.22 ↓ (3.41)	2.28 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nantong Zhiyun
29.6%

Draw
29.2%

Shenzhen Peng City
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

27.7%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

27.6%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nantong Zhiyun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nantong Zhiyun's form might have worsened.

Shenzhen Peng City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shenzhen Peng City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantong Zhiyun than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nantong Zhiyun, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shenzhen Peng City than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Shenzhen Peng City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	33.3%	58.3%

Nantong Zhiyun - Shenzhen Peng City Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Nantong Zhiyun will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Shenzhen Peng City will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shenzhen Peng City: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Chen Zhao (G) 18. Jiang Zilei 5. Ma Sheng (C) 20. Anthony I. 34. Luo Xin 26. Ye Daochi 29. Zheng Haoqian 15. Liu Wei 25. Cao Kang 38. Lu Yongtao 11. Zimin Nuali	13. Peng Peng (G) 2. Zhang Wei 20. Dugalic R. 15. Yu Rui 16. Li Zhi 33. Zhu Baojie (C) 3. Tian Yinong 6. Lin Chuangyi 44. Ruan Yang 10. Ortiz M. J. 7. Thiago Andrade
Substitutes
17. Ji Shengpan 31. Liao Lei 1. Li Huayang (G) 39. Liu Y. 7. Nzuzi Mata K. 16. Puclin D. 36. Qiu Zhongyi 13. Song Haoyu 3. Wang Jie 2. Wei Lai	27. Abduweli Behram 9. Armenteros S. 31. Ependi N. 11. Garcia E. 1. Li Zhizhao (G) 21. Nan Song 19. Orr M. 5. Song Yue 24. Wang H. 4. Wang Qiao 28. Zhang Yudong
Coaches
Jurasovic M.	Tato J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Jiang Zilei 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Lin Chuangyi ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
60', Yu Rui 🟨,
62', Jiang Zilei ↓, Song Haoyu ↑,
62', Ye Daochi ↓, Nzuzi Mata K. ↑,
68', Ruan Yang ↓, Armenteros S. ↑,
70', Ortiz M. J. 🟨,
78', Zimin Nuali ↓, Ji Shengpan ↑,
83', Zhu Baojie ↓, Abduweli Behram ↑,
84', Thiago Andrade ↓, Orr M. ↑,
85', Zhang Wei 🟨,
90+2', 0 - 1, Ortiz M. J. ⚽,
90+4', Cao Kang ↓, Wang Jie ↑,
90+4', Luo Xin ↓, Puclin D. ↑,
90+9', Liu Wei 🟨,
90+16', Abduweli Behram 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Jia League and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Jia League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nantong Zhiyun won 5.

Nantong Zhiyun is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Shenzhen Peng City has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Nantong Zhiyun won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Nantong Zhiyun won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nantong Zhiyun
Chinese Super League
26.05.24	Beijing Guoan - Nantong Zhiyun	5:2 ✺
21.05.24	Nantong Zhiyun - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	1:1 ✺
17.05.24	Zhejiang Professional - Nantong Zhiyun	5:2 ✺
10.05.24	Qingdao Hainiu - Nantong Zhiyun	2:2 ✺
05.05.24	Nantong Zhiyun - Changchun Yatai	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLTL
- Shenzhen Peng City
Chinese Super League
26.05.24	Shenzhen Peng City - Shanghai Shenhua	0:1 ✺
21.05.24	Meizhou Hakka - Shenzhen Peng City	0:0 ✺
16.05.24	Shandong Taishan - Shenzhen Peng City	3:2 ✺
12.05.24	Shenzhen Peng City - Qingdao West Coast	1:2 ✺
05.05.24	Shenzhen Peng City - Shanghai Port	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Jia League
29.09.22	Shenzhen Peng City - Nantong Zhiyun	0:1
11.09.22	Nantong Zhiyun - Shenzhen Peng City	2:0
18.12.21	Nantong Zhiyun - Shenzhen Peng City	2:0
04.12.21	Shenzhen Peng City - Nantong Zhiyun	0:2
11.10.20	Shenzhen Peng City - Nantong Zhiyun	1:2
23.09.20	Nantong Zhiyun - Shenzhen Peng City	1:1
Chinese Yi League
04.08.18	Shenzhen Peng City - Nantong Zhiyun	0:0

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