Match Info

USL League One

Date: 3 July 2026, Friday

Location: Paradise Coast Sports Complex (Naples, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Canada	fubo Sports Network
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+, SportsEngine Play


	Naples		Portland Hearts of Pine

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.50	2.65
	2.06	3.35	3.05
	2.16	3.74	2.91
	2.1	3.72	3.09	Watch
	2.06	3.55	3.00
	2.24	3.75	2.81	Watch
	2.23	3.50	2.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.38)	3.59 ↑ (3.2)	2.89 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naples
42.7%

Draw
25.5%

Portland Hearts of Pine
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

28.1%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

26.6%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naples has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Portland Hearts of Pine has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naples than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portland Hearts of Pine than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Naples - Portland Hearts of Pine Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Delgado L. (C) 20. Yearwood J. 5. Mastrantonio L. 22. Yoder J. 3. Cisneros J. 23. Mesias A. 14. O'Connor K. 7. Gray T. 19. Arevalo W. 11. Garcia C. 9. Miglietti G.	1. Morse H. (C) 2. Jones-Riley J. 44. Faye S. 66. Green K. 99. Drack J. 21. Georgallides K. 18. Barbosa D. 8. Poon-Angeron M. 22. Evans B. 16. Gonzalez D. 9. Camara A.
Substitutes
16. Bulai-Tudor A. 30. Cerro I. 6. Ciss O. 10. Ferrin A. 34. Fitzgerald L. (G) 99. Grant J. (G) 8. Osorio J. 31. Rose T. 21. Torrellas M.	25. Espinosa E. 11. Kamara J. 98. Kidd M. 5. Lopez M. 23. Oladapo K. (G) 20. Sing D. 7. Varela W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Drack J. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Garcia C. ⚽, Cisneros J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
48', 1 - 1, Faye S. ⚽, Camara A. (A),
58', Barbosa D. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
58', Camara A. ↓, Sing D. ↑,
62', Gray T. ↓, Ferrin A. ↑,
62', Arevalo W. ↓, Ciss O. ↑,
69', Garcia C. ↓, Cerro I. ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Ferrin A. ⚽, Ciss O. (A),
76', Poon-Angeron M. ↓, Kidd M. ↑,
76', Faye S. ↓, Kamara J. ↑,
82', Mesias A. ↓, Torrellas M. ↑,
86', Georgallides K. ↓, Varela W. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Gonzalez D. ⚽, Kidd M. (A),
90+1', 2 - 3, Lopez M. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 11).

Naples is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Hearts of Pine is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hearts of Pine may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Naples will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Naples won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	FC Naples	29	11	4	14	34:44	-10	37
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	43:53	-10	31

Last Results with these Odds

Portland Hearts of Pine - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 34.17%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Naples
USL League One
20.06.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Naples	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	Charlotte Independence - Naples	4:3 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	Naples - Sarasota Paradise	0:2 ✺
USL League One
03.06.26	Naples - Charlotte Independence	1:5 ✺
30.05.26	Union Omaha - Naples	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Portland Hearts of Pine
USL League One
24.06.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Richmond Kickers	5:1 ✺
19.06.26	Westchester SC - Portland Hearts of Pine	5:1 ✺
13.06.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Chattanooga Red Wolves	1:2 ✺
USL Cup
07.06.26	Brooklyn - Portland Hearts of Pine	5:1 ✺
USL League One
03.06.26	Corpus Christi - Portland Hearts of Pine	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
19.04.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Naples	1:1
21.09.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Naples	1:0
17.05.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Naples	2:1

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