Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 21

Date: 31 July 2026, Friday

Location: Männiku Stadium (Tallinn)

Referee: Kulljastinen K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	ETV 2, Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Nõmme United		Narva Trans

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.60	3.00
	1.98	3.70	3.10
	2.11	4.13	3.00
	1.95	3.96	3.29	Watch
	1.90	3.45	2.95
	1.98	3.76	3.34	Watch
	1.99	3.70	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.85)	3.76 ↑ (3.7)	3.1 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme United
46.2%

Draw
24.3%

Narva Trans
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

24.7%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

24%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Narva Trans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Narva Trans than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Nõmme United - Narva Trans Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nõmme United will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Narva Trans will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Nõmme United (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nõmme United (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lagus G. (G) 13. Truuvaart A. 10. Frolov A. (C) 2. Morishige Y. 6. Palts M. 20. Matas K. 26. Oostenbrink K. 22. Radomskiy A. 45. Jarvelaid H. 49. Beglarishvili Z. 9. Ounapuu E.	1. Zahharov M. (G) 4. Ivanyushin A. 5. Campagna C. 12. Eriks Santos 3. Berardozzi T. 19. Elysee (C) 16. Kondrattsev S. 37. Awusi W. 7. Velijev M. 10. Gero A. 9. Doke J.
Substitutes
4. Alteberg A. 11. Chisala B. 24. Kabal G. 31. Kaspar A. 19. Krasnov I. 23. Laanelaid K. 71. Purg G. (G) 8. Vain B. 14. Vassiljev N. 52. Vendelin T.	8. Agaptsev S. 88. Besigirskis A. 25. Burjanadze S. 14. Filatov A. 44. Geveller D. 70. Imeh J. 23. Jegorov A. 29. Kudriashov V. 27. Pareiko D. (G) 39. Poliakov D. 17. Skinjov A.
Coaches
Cisakowski S.	Campana D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Gero A. ⚽, Velijev M. (A),
24', Jarvelaid H. 🟨,
31', 0 - 2, Velijev M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Radomskiy A. ↓, Kabal G. ↑,
46', Ounapuu E. ↓, Chisala B. ↑,
62', Truuvaart A. ↓, Vain B. ↑,
63', Elysee ↓, Agaptsev S. ↑,
63', Berardozzi T. ↓, Filatov A. ↑,
68', Palts M. ↓, Krasnov I. ↑,
72', Velijev M. ↓, Imeh J. ↑,
72', Doke J. ↓, Besigirskis A. ↑,
79', Lagus G. 🟨,
88', Eriks Santos ↓, Burjanadze S. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,
90+3', Burjanadze S. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 2, Frolov A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Nõmme United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Nõmme United might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.9:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 2:2.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Nomme Utd	29	9	1	19	47:68	-21	28
10	Narva	29	5	4	20	22:65	-43	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme United
Estonian Meistriliiga
17.07.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
11.07.26	Nõmme United - Kuressaare	3:2 ✺
03.07.26	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	1:3 ✺
20.06.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	1:3 ✺
17.06.26	Nõmme United - Levadia Tallinn	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 WWLWL
- Narva Trans
Estonian Cup
22.07.26	Narva Trans - Flora U21	1:0 penalties ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
18.07.26	Narva Trans - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
10.07.26	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	3:0 ✺
04.07.26	Narva Trans - Levadia Tallinn	1:3 ✺
21.06.26	Tammeka - Narva Trans	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
13.06.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme United	1:2
11.04.26	Nõmme United - Narva Trans	5:1
Club Friendly
24.01.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme United	3:4
Estonian Meistriliiga
21.09.24	Nõmme United - Narva Trans	0:4
26.07.24	Narva Trans - Nõmme United	2:1
23.05.24	Nõmme United - Narva Trans	1:3
30.03.24	Narva Trans - Nõmme United	2:0

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