Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 23

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Narva Kalev-Fama staadion (Narva)

Referee: Tohver K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Narva Trans		Paide LM

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.60	1.72
	4.25	3.6	1.7
	4.25	4.02	1.74
	3.46	3.98	1.89	Watch
	4.1	3.95	1.72
	4.36	3.89	1.71	Watch
	3.95	3.7	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↓ (4.26)	3.82 ↑ (3.69)	1.74 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Narva Trans
23%

Draw
24.1%

Paide LM
52.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.4%

24.7%

53.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20%

26.4%

57.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Narva Trans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Narva Trans than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Narva Trans - Paide LM Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zahharov M. (G) 16. Kondrattsev S. 5. Campagna C. 12. Eriks Santos 4. Ivanyushin A. 19. Elysee (C) 48. Awusi W. 3. Berardozzi T. 7. Velijev M. 10. Gero A. 14. Filatov A.	99. Jarju E. (G) 7. Tur E. 27. Baranov N. 3. Victor Hugo 2. Lilander M. 6. Daniel Cabral 28. Hoim O. (C) 77. Luts D. 21. Smirnov R. 11. Sohna M. P. 9. Anier H.
Substitutes
8. Agaptsev S. 88. Besigirskis A. 44. Geveller D. 70. Imeh J. 23. Jegorov A. 29. Kudriashov V. 66. Petkus E. 39. Poliakov D. 17. Skinjov A. 69. Venteo I. (G) 22. Zuravljov E.	4. Andrade 65. Badamosi A. 17. Cham P. A. 14. Jobarteh M. 19. Luts S. 12. Meerits M. (G) 8. Ojamaa H. 20. Piht K. 16. Surogin A.
Coaches
Campana D.	Kink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Berardozzi T. ⚽,
6', Daniel Cabral 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Smirnov R. ↓, Jobarteh M. ↑,
46', Daniel Cabral ↓, Ojamaa H. ↑,
46', Lilander M. ↓, Andrade ↑,
52', Elysee ↓, Zuravljov E. ↑,
54', Berardozzi T. 🟨,
55', 1 - 1, Andrade ⚽,
67', Filatov A. ↓, Besigirskis A. ↑,
70', Luts D. ↓, Badamosi A. ↑,
73', Awusi W. 🟨,
76', Ojamaa H. 🟨,
82', Gero A. ↓, Skinjov A. ↑,
82', Ivanyushin A. ↓, Agaptsev S. ↑,
82', Awusi W. ↓, Imeh J. ↑,
83', Zuravljov E. 🟨,
89', Hoim O. ↓, Surogin A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Narva Trans won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Narva Trans may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Paide is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Narva Trans won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:29. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Narva Trans won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 0.9:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paide	29	15	6	8	48:36	12	51
10	Narva	29	5	4	20	22:65	-43	19

Last Results with these Odds

Paide LM - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 53.9%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Narva Trans
Estonian Meistriliiga
08.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:2 ✺
31.07.26	Nõmme United - Narva Trans	1:2 ✺
Estonian Cup
22.07.26	Narva Trans - Flora U21	1:0 penalties ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
18.07.26	Narva Trans - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
10.07.26	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWWWL
- Paide LM
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.08.26	Rapid Wien - Paide LM	2:0 ✺
06.08.26	Paide LM - Rapid Wien	1:4 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
02.08.26	Paide LM - Kuressaare	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Zira - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
23.07.26	Paide LM - Zira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.7 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
20.05.26	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:0
15.03.26	Paide LM - Narva Trans	1:0
Club Friendly
07.02.26	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:1
Estonian Meistriliiga
27.09.25	Narva Trans - Paide LM	2:3
20.07.25	Paide LM - Narva Trans	2:0
31.05.25	Paide LM - Narva Trans	0:1
15.03.25	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:0

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