Match Info

USA: MLS

Date: 17 June 2023, Saturday

Location: Geodis Park (Nashville)

Referee: Saghafi N. (Usa)


	Nashville SC		St. Louis City

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.8	4.5	Watch
	1.72	3.75	4.4
	1.68	3.9	4.7
	1.76	3.97	4.79
	1.62	3.6	4.33	Watch
	1.72	3.94	4.5	Watch
	1.71	3.85	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.59)	3.83 ↓ (4.1)	4.56 ↓ (5.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nashville SC
54.9%

Draw
24.5%

St. Louis City
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

22.8%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

22.2%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nashville SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

St. Louis City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nashville SC than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nashville SC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Louis City than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.2%	4.8%	19%

Nashville SC - St. Louis City Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Nashville will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). St. Louis City will win (votes: 4 - 19%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nashville: 58% – 94.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Willis J. (G) 18. Moore S. 22. Bauer J. 5. Maher J. 2. Lovitz D. 8. Leal R. 6. McCarty D. 54. Davis S. 19. Muyl A. 10. Mukhtar H. (C) 12. Bunbury T.	1. Burki R. (G) 2. Nerwinski J. 24. Bartlett L. A. 26. Parker T. 22. Hiebert K. 19. Vassilev I. 28. Perez M. 21. Alm R. 7. Ostrak T. 8. Stroud J. 11. Gioacchini N.
Substitutes
27. Anunga T. 24. Gregus J. 26. Haakenson L. 67. Martino B. (G) 30. Panicco E. (G) 14. Shaffelburg J. 23. Washinghton T. 16. Wyke L. 11. Zubak E.	25. Jackson A. 30. Jensen I. 39. Lundt B. (G) 14. Nelson J. 17. Pidro S. 12. Pompeu C. 44. Schneider M. 20. Watts A. 15. Yaro J.
Coaches
Smith G.	Carnell B.

Preview

The great teams are gonna meet at this game. The most expected match between two teams from the very top of the group (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Nashville has the most likely position - 2 (18.94%), project points - 57, currently - 32, a very good chance of playoffs (97%), a small chance of supporters shield (8%), a small chance of win league (8%).

St. Louis City has the most likely position - 2 (14.33%), project points - 49, currently - 29, a good chance of playoffs (89%), a very small chance of supporters shield (<1%), a very small chance of win league (1%).

This event has quality 38, very small importance 9, small match rating 24. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Nashville could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Nashville have a series of guest games.

Recently St. Louis City have a series of home games.

In this match Nashville is a favorite.

There will not play in Nashville: DePuy N. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in St. Louis City: Joao Klauss (Injury) Nilsson J. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nashville SC
MLS
10.06.23	Toronto FC - Nashville SC	1:1 ✺
03.06.23	FC Dallas - Nashville SC	1:2 ✺
28.05.23	Nashville SC - Columbus Crew	3:1 ✺
US Open Cup
23.05.23	Inter Miami - Nashville SC	2:1 ✺
MLS
20.05.23	Charlotte - Nashville SC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 TWWLW
- St. Louis City SC
MLS
11.06.23	St. Louis City - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:1 ✺
07.06.23	FC Dallas - St. Louis City	2:0 ✺
03.06.23	St. Louis City - Houston Dynamo	3:0 ✺
27.05.23	St. Louis City - Vancouver Whitecaps	3:1 ✺
20.05.23	St. Louis City - Sporting Kansas City	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLWWW

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