Match Info

MLS

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Geodis Park (Nashville, TN)

Referee: Touchan R. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV International


	Nashville SC		Toronto FC

	1	X	2
	1.35	5.50	7.00	Watch
	1.38	5.00	7.00
	1.40	4.90	6.75
	1.37	5.60	8.26
	1.42	4.92	6.8	Watch
	1.35	5.30	8.15
	1.39	5.54	7.05	Watch
	1.37	5.20	6.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.5)	5.25 ↑ (4.62)	7.2 ↑ (5.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nashville SC
68.8%

Draw
18.1%

Toronto FC
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63%

20.4%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.3%

19.7%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nashville SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nashville SC's performance.

Toronto FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nashville SC than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nashville SC - Toronto FC Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Nashville (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Nashville SC will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nashville (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Willis J. (G) 31. Najar A. 4. Palacios J. 3. Woledzi M. 27. Baker-Whiting R. 16. Corcoran M. 20. Tagseth E. 11. Saad E. 7. Espinoza C. 9. Surridge S. 10. Mukhtar H. (C)	1. Gavran L. (G) 38. Gilman J. 12. Monlouis Z. 15. Gomis N. 3. Matheus Pereira 7. Corbeanu T. 21. Osorio J. (C) 6. Dorsch N. 20. Salloi D. 90. Morgan L. 9. Sargent J.
Substitutes
6. Acosta B. 22. Bauer J. 23. Knight J. 2. Lovitz D. 95. Mackay W. (G) 5. Maher J. 14. Mohammed S. 19. Muyl A. 17. Presthus O.	17. Aristizabal E. 14. Coello A. 44. Edwards R. 11. Etienne D. 19. Franklin K. 27. Piedrahita A. 76. Stefanovic L. 99. Vilsaint J. 23. Yarbrough W. (G)
Coaches
Callaghan B.	Fraser R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Mukhtar H. ⚽, Espinoza C. (A),
43', 2 - 0, Mukhtar H. ⚽, Surridge S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Morgan L. ↓, Coello A. ↑,
63', Gomis N. ↓, Franklin K. ↑,
71', Saad E. ↓, Mohammed S. ↑,
73', Salloi D. ↓, Aristizabal E. ↑,
73', Osorio J. ↓, Piedrahita A. ↑,
78', Espinoza C. ↓, Muyl A. ↑,
86', Tagseth E. ↓, Acosta B. ↑,
87', Najar A. ↓, Bauer J. ↑,
87', Corbeanu T. ↓, Etienne D. ↑,

Preview

A clear contrast in standings as an upper-tier team meets a relegation-threatened side (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ MLS Playoffs1/8~finals) and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nashville won 4.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

In this match, Nashville enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Confirmed absences for Nashville: Qasem A. (International duty) Schwake B. (International duty) Valdez X. (International duty) Yazbek P. (International duty).

Confirmed absences for Toronto: Chukwu R. (International duty) Cimermancic M. (International duty) Kuscevic B. (International duty) Laryea R. (International duty) Mihailovic D. (Muscle Injury) Palacio N. (Lower-Body Injury) Zimmerman W. (Yellow Cards).

Doubtful / questionable for Nashville: Madrigal W. (Lower-Body Injury).

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Nashville has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:14 (averaging 1.4:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nashville against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 9:6 goals (averaging 1.8:1.2 per game).

Outrights of MLS for now

Nashville SC: 11.34% Toronto FC: 0.68%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nashville SC
MLS
19.09.26	Nashville SC - Chicago Fire	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Inter Miami - Nashville SC	2:2 ✺
09.09.26	Toronto FC - Nashville SC	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	New York City - Nashville SC	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Nashville SC - Cincinnati	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTLTW
- Toronto FC
MLS
19.09.26	St. Louis City - Toronto FC	3:1 ✺
12.09.26	Orlando City - Toronto FC	3:0 ✺
09.09.26	Toronto FC - Nashville SC	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Toronto FC - Chicago Fire	4:4 ✺
29.08.26	Toronto FC - New York City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

MLS
09.09.26	Toronto FC - Nashville SC	2:1
19.07.25	Nashville SC - Toronto FC	1:0
24.05.25	Toronto FC - Nashville SC	1:2
19.06.24	Toronto FC - Nashville SC	1:2
15.05.24	Nashville SC - Toronto FC	2:0
10.06.23	Toronto FC - Nashville SC	1:1
08.04.23	Nashville SC - Toronto FC	0:0

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