Match Info

MLS

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: CITYPARK (St. Louis, MO)

Referee: Szpala L. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
International	Apple TV International


	St. Louis City		Toronto FC

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.80	4.33	Watch
	1.73	4.10	4.00
	1.65	4.10	4.50
	1.82	4.07	4.29
	1.66	4.34	4.54	Watch
	1.80	3.95	4.10
	1.82	3.83	4.37	Watch
	1.75	4.00	4.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.71)	4.02 ↓ (4.31)	4.27 ↑ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Louis City
54.2%

Draw
23.6%

Toronto FC
22.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.3%

22%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

21.1%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Louis City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Toronto FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Louis City than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

St. Louis City - Toronto FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burki R. (C) 99. Orozco J. 32. Baumgartl T. 27. Fall F. 6. Wallem C. 8. Durkin C. 23. Matan A. 14. Totland T. 77. Jeong S. 9. Rafael Navarro 19. Holse C.	1. Gavran L. (G) 11. Etienne D. 22. Laryea R. 25. Zimmerman W. 13. Kuscevic B. 3. Matheus Pereira 14. Coello A. 6. Dorsch N. 71. Cimermancic M. 9. Sargent J. 20. Salloi D.
Substitutes
11. Becher S. 42. Downs D. 24. Edelman D. 59. Joyner M. 39. Lundt B. (G) 5. MacNaughton L. 7. Ostrak T. 21. Polvara D. 20. Rafael Santos	17. Aristizabal E. 7. Corbeanu T. 19. Franklin K. 38. Gilman J. 15. Gomis N. 12. Monlouis Z. 90. Morgan L. 21. Osorio J. 23. Yarbrough W. (G)
Coaches
Damet Y.	Fraser R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Zimmerman W. 🟨,
28', Wallem C. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Holse C. ⚽, Matan A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Jeong S. ↓, Becher S. ↑,
54', 2 - 0, Totland T. ⚽, Matan A. (A),
57', Zimmerman W. ↓, Gomis N. ↑,
63', Etienne D. ↓, Monlouis Z. ↑,
63', Dorsch N. ↓, Osorio J. ↑,
63', Cimermancic M. ↓, Corbeanu T. ↑,
68', 3 - 0, Becher S. ⚽, Wallem C. (A),
73', Fall F. 🟨,
74', Coello A. 🟨,
75', Sargent J. ↓, Morgan L. ↑,
78', Wallem C. ↓, Polvara D. ↑,
79', Matan A. ↓, Edelman D. ↑,
85', Rafael Navarro ↓, Downs D. ↑,
90+2', Holse C. ↓, Ostrak T. ↑,
90+7', 3 - 1, Corbeanu T. ⚽, Coello A. (A),

Preview

One of the top-ranked clubs faces a lower-table side fighting for vital survival points (ranked 5th in the Promotion ~ MLS Playoffs1/8~finals) and 12th).

St. Louis City is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Toronto has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Toronto could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, St. Louis City is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for St. Louis City: Celio Pompeu (Knee Injury) Hiebert K. (Hip Injury).

Confirmed absences for Toronto: Mihailovic D. (Muscle Injury) Osorio J. (Knee Injury) Palacio N. (Lower-Body Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for St. Louis City: Ault P. (Ankle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Toronto: Stefanovic L. (Foot Injury).

Our forecast points to a victory for St. Louis City in today's match, at odds of 1.61.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, St. Louis City has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St. Louis City SC
US Open Cup
16.09.26	Colorado Rapids - St. Louis City	0:3 ✺
MLS
12.09.26	St. Louis City - Minnesota United	4:2 ✺
09.09.26	Portland Timbers - St. Louis City	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Vancouver Whitecaps - St. Louis City	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	St. Louis City - FC Dallas	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 WWTWT
- Toronto FC
MLS
12.09.26	Orlando City - Toronto FC	3:0 ✺
09.09.26	Toronto FC - Nashville SC	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Toronto FC - Chicago Fire	4:4 ✺
29.08.26	Toronto FC - New York City	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Inter Miami - Toronto FC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
08.07.23	Toronto FC - St. Louis City	0:1

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