Match Info

SPAIN: SEGUNDA RFEF - GROUP 5 - ROUND 11

Date: 12 November 2023, Sunday


	Navalcarnero		Mensajero

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.4	4.6
	1.72	3.5	4.75
	1.72	3.52	5.09
	1.69	3.52	5.09
	1.64	3.38	5.1
	1.68	3.4	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.41)	3.45 ↓ (4)	4.91 ↓ (7.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Navalcarnero
54.6%

Draw
26.6%

Mensajero
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

22.8%

12.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

13.2%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Navalcarnero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Navalcarnero's form might have worsened.

Mensajero has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mensajero's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (-17.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Navalcarnero that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mensajero than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Navalcarnero - Mensajero Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 13 in the zone Segunda RFEF ~ Play Out and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Navalcarnero is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Mensajero has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Mensajero could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Navalcarnero is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Navalcarnero won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Navalcarnero won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDA Navalcarnero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
05.11.23	Getafe B - Navalcarnero	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.11.23	Navalcarnero - Alcorcón	0:1 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
29.10.23	Navalcarnero - Villanovense	0:2 ✺
22.10.23	Navalcarnero - Badajoz	3:1 ✺
15.10.23	Numancia - Navalcarnero	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWL
- CD Mensajero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
05.11.23	Mensajero - Numancia	2:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
31.10.23	Mensajero - Espanyol	0:2 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
28.10.23	Illescas - Mensajero	3:1 ✺
22.10.23	Mensajero - Atlético Paso	0:2 ✺
15.10.23	Llerenense - Mensajero	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa Federacion
06.12.18	Mensajero - Navalcarnero	2:5
21.11.18	Navalcarnero - Mensajero	1:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
23.04.17	Mensajero - Navalcarnero	1:1
27.11.16	Navalcarnero - Mensajero	1:1

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