Match Info

Premier League - Round 15

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Shamakhi City Stadium (Shamakhi)

Referee: Mammadov I. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Shamakhi		Zira

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.7	2.92	2	Watch
	5.09	3.2	1.78
	3.91	3.04	1.99	Watch
	3.9	2.75	2.05
	5.3	3.03	1.82	Watch
	4.25	2.8	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.36 ↑ (3.02)	2.96 ↓ (3.34)	1.93 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Shamakhi
21.1%

Draw
31.1%

Zira
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

27.5%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

26.6%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shamakhi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shamakhi's form might have worsened.

Zira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zira's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shamakhi than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shamakhi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zira than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Shamakhi - Zira Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ricardo Fernandes (G) 82. Abbasov R. 5. Agcabayov A. (C) 13. Apolinario R. 11. Balau D. 4. Cezar 44. David Santos 97. Mammadov O. 8. Msanga A. 9. Rossi K. 3. Veremeev V.	97. Tiago Silva (G) 32. Aliyev Q. (C) 17. Gomis I. 30. Guima 25. Henrique Gelain 11. Martins Junior 28. Mickels L. 5. Mutsinzi A. 29. Nuriyev C. 10. Papunashvili G. 4. Ruan Renato
Substitutes
7. Adilkhanov E. 6. Antonio Lara 14. Gafarov R. 99. Hashimov S. (G) 21. Ismayilov B. 80. Ismayilov H. 17. Maharramli R. 77. Mehraliyev N. 24. Muradly S. 62. Seyiahmadov A. (G) 19. Shuaibu A. 27. Suleymanov E.	14. Alicanov E. 13. Bayramov A. (G) 16. Bayramov F. 77. Bogomolskiy E. 33. Eyubov A. 21. Hacyly H. 8. Ibrahimli I. 6. Kuliyev E. 48. Muradov R. 7. Muradov R. 41. Nazirov A. (G) 43. Suleymanzade A.
Coaches
Abbasov A.	Sadiqov R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Papunashvili G. ⚽,
10', Rossi K. 🟨,
44', Martins Junior 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 1 - 1, Msanga A. ⚽,
62', 2 - 1, Rossi K. (Penalty Awarded),
62', Guima ↓, Ibrahimli I. ↑,
62', Martins Junior ↓, Bogomolskiy E. ↑,
78', Aliyev Q. 🟨,
78', Nuriyev C. ↓, Kuliyev E. ↑,
83', Mammadov O. ↓, Adilkhanov E. ↑,
83', Aliyev Q. ↓, Muradov R. ↑,
88', Msanga A. ↓, Suleymanov E. ↑,
90+4', Apolinario R. ↓, Antonio Lara ↑,
90+6', Kuliyev E. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shamakhi won 0.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Zira may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Zira has had a series of home games.

In this match, Zira is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shamakhi won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 12:31. (average 0.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Shamakhi won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:14. (average 0.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shamakhi FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
07.12.25	Karvan - Shamakhi	0:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
03.12.25	Shamakhi - Baku Sporting	1:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
30.11.25	Shamakhi - Sumgayit	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Sabah - Shamakhi	0:0 ✺
07.11.25	Shamakhi - İmişli	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWLTW
- Zira FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
06.12.25	Zira - Qarabağ Agdam	1:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
02.12.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ET ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.11.25	Kapaz - Zira	0:2 ✺
22.11.25	Zira - Gabala	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Zira - Turan Tovuz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
19.09.25	Zira - Shamakhi	2:1
30.03.25	Zira - Shamakhi	3:0
24.01.25	Shamakhi - Zira	1:2
Azerbaijan Cup
04.12.24	Zira - Shamakhi	3:1
Azerbaijan Premier League
02.11.24	Shamakhi - Zira	0:2
25.08.24	Zira - Shamakhi	0:1
06.05.23	Shamakhi - Zira	0:3

Upcoming Matches