Match Info

LITHUANIA: I LYGA - ROUND 11

Date: 26 May 2023, Friday


	Neptūnas		Marijampolė City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.8	3.4	3.6
	1.78	3.65	3.6
	1.83	3.61	3.52
	1.83	3.3	3.5
	1.82	3.9	3.52
	1.8	3.65	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.6)	3.59 ↓ (3.71)	3.58 ↓ (4.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neptūnas
49.7%

Draw
25.1%

Marijampolė City
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

24%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

23.7%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neptūnas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Neptūnas's form might have worsened.

Marijampolė City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Neptūnas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marijampolė City than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marijampolė City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Neptūnas - Marijampolė City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ A Lyga).

Neptūnas is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Marijampolė City is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Neptūnas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Marijampolė City have a series of home games.

Neptūnas will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Neptūnas won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Neptūnas Klaipėda
Lithuanian Division 2
19.05.23	Babrungas Plungė - Neptūnas	2:2 ✺
13.05.23	Neptūnas - BFA Vilnius	1:0 ✺
29.04.23	Ekranas - Neptūnas	0:1 ✺
21.04.23	Neptūnas - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:0 ✺
16.04.23	Panevėžys 2 - Neptūnas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWWWL
- Marijampolė City
Lithuanian Cup
23.05.23	Marijampolė City - Banga Gargždai	1:4 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
19.05.23	Marijampolė City - Nevėžis	1:0 ✺
13.05.23	BE1 NFA Kaunas - Marijampolė City	1:2 ✺
30.04.23	Marijampolė City - Kauno Žalgiris 2	2:0 ✺
23.04.23	Marijampolė City - Babrungas Plungė	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
18.08.22	Marijampolė City - Neptūnas	2:1

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