Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park (Albuquerque, NM)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	New Mexico United		Tampa Bay Rowdies

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.15	3.65	2
	3.26	4	2.06
	3.18	4.09	1.96	Watch
	3.1	3.6	1.95
	3.18	3.64	1.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↓ (3.48)	3.8 ↑ (3.4)	1.99 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New Mexico United
29.1%

Draw
24.3%

Tampa Bay Rowdies
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

27.1%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.3%

25.9%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New Mexico United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Tampa Bay Rowdies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

New Mexico United - Tampa Bay Rowdies Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. New Mexico will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Tampa Bay will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. New Mexico (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
56. Arozarena R. (G) 17. LaCava J. 27. Howell M. 2. Hamalainen N. 3. Gloster C. 19. Bailey Z. 6. Zelalem G. 15. Jabang O. 21. Noel V. 7. Reid-Stephen N. 10. Hurst G. (C)	1. Waite J. (G) 26. Acoff D. 3. Schaefer B. 62. Dossantos N. (C) 20. Ostrem C. 30. Cruz S. 23. Schneider M. 13. Perez L. 8. Pedro Becker 17. Mattheus 9. Myers M.
Substitutes
5. Harris D. 4. Keller K. 11. Nava C. 9. Rennicks J. 16. Seymore W. 13. Shakes K. (G) 28. Wilkerson C.	7. Conway E. 14. Henderlong K. 4. Hilton L. 16. Micaletto M. 24. Pack A. (G) 36. Rodriguez A. 27. Wyke L.
Coaches
Sanchez D.	Casciato D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Dossantos N. 🟨,
5', 0 - 1, Perez L. ⚽, Mattheus (A),
18', Gloster C. 🟨,
34', Mattheus ↓, Micaletto M. ↑,
37', Perez L. 🟨,
37', Bailey Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Perez L. ↓, Conway E. ↑,
48', Hurst G. 🟨,
49', Noel V. 🟨,
56', Zelalem G. ↓, Harris D. ↑,
56', Howell M. ↓, Keller K. ↑,
59', Schneider M. 🟨,
71', Acoff D. ↓, Wyke L. ↑,
72', Gloster C. ↓, Seymore W. ↑,
72', Noel V. ↓, Rennicks J. ↑,
74', Hamalainen N. 🟨,
76', Myers M. ↓, Henderlong K. ↑,
85', Reid-Stephen N. ↓, Nava C. ↑,
86', Jabang O. 🟨,
89', Ostrem C. 🟨,
90+4', Conway E. 🟨,
90+6', Conway E. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Recent performances by New Mexico have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tampa Bay is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

New Mexico may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tampa Bay could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, New Mexico won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New Mexico United
USL Cup
16.05.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - New Mexico United	4:0 ✺
USL Championship
09.05.26	New Mexico United - Las Vegas Lights	3:1 ✺
06.05.26	New Mexico United - El Paso Locomotive	2:2 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	New Mexico United - AV Alta	2:1 ✺
USL Championship
11.04.26	Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWTWL
- Tampa Bay Rowdies
USL Cup
16.05.26	Miami - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:4 ✺
USL Championship
09.05.26	Rhode Island - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Indy Eleven	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Sarasota Paradise	2:0 ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Charleston Battery - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
27.04.24	Tampa Bay Rowdies - New Mexico United	3:0
10.06.23	Tampa Bay Rowdies - New Mexico United	3:2

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