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Current Win Probability
New York City 52.9%
Draw 26.2%
DC United 21%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
59.1%
23.9%
17%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.9%
16.9%
24%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
New York City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that New York City's form might have worsened.
DC United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-11%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with New York City that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for DC United than the current prediction. (+3%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
80%
10%
10%
New York City - DC United Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. NY City (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
New York City will win
(8 of 10 users predict this - 80%). Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
49. Freese M. (G) 19. Tanasijevic S. 13. Thiago Martins (C) 34. Raul Gustavo 2. Cavallo N. 5. Trewin K. 10. Moralez M. 21. O'Neill A. 26. Ojeda A. 7. Mercau N. 11. Talles Magno
1. Johnson S. (G) 5. Hefti S. 3. Bartlett L. (C) 15. Rowles K. 6. Kurokawa K. 8. Stroud J. 4. Peltola M. 23. Servania B. 7. Peglow 25. Hopkins J. 11. Munteanu L.
Substitutes
29. Carrizo M. 87. Farnos A. 88. Jones M. 55. Parks K. 8. Perea A. 99. Reid S. 30. Romero T. (G) 32. Shore J. 17. Wolf H.
12. Antley C. 26. Bono A. (G) 30. Clark C. 24. Farr J. (G) 22. Herrera A. 77. Kijima H. 27. Markovic N. 17. Murrell J. 48. Turner G.
Coaches
Jansen P.
Weiler R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Kurokawa K. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Munteanu L. ⚽,
36', O'Neill A. ↓, Perea A. ↑,
45+3', Hefti S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Stroud J. ↓, Herrera A. ↑,
60', Hopkins J. ↓, Markovic N. ↑,
63', Tanasijevic S. ↓, Parks K. ↑,
63', Jones M. ↓, Wolf H. ↑,
70', Peglow 🟨,
75', 0 - 2, Munteanu L. (Penalty Awarded),
78', Munteanu L. ↓, Murrell J. ↑,
80', Mercau N. 🟨,
81', Raul Gustavo ↓, Shore J. ↑,
81', Ojeda A. ↓, Reid S. ↑,
89', Peglow ↓, Antley C. ↑,
90+3', Murrell J. 🟨,
Preview
Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 10).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY City won 1.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
DC United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, NY City is the team to beat.
There will not play in NY City: Baiera D.
(Knee Injury)
Gray T.
(Red Card)
Martinez A.
(Knee Injury)
Wolf H.
(Leg Injury)
There will not play in DC United: Karamoko H.
(Illness)
Nealis S.
(Broken collarbone)
Segal G.
(Leg Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, NY City won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 34:20. (average 1.7:1).
Including home matches between the teams, NY City won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:9. (average 2.4:0.9).
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Freese M. (G) 
Tanasijevic S. 
Thiago Martins (C) 
Trewin K. 
Moralez M. 
Hefti S. 
Kurokawa K. 
Peltola M. 
Munteanu L. 
Farnos A. 
Jones M. 
Reid S. 
Romero T. (G) 
Wolf H. 
Herrera A. 
Markovic N. 
Jansen P. 
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